ECONOMICS OF SHADOWRUNNING Corporation Report: Economics of Independent Illegal Operatives -- 'Shadowrunners' [e--l] at [cco.caltech.edu] (Earl A. Hubbell) Abstract: Statistical analysis applied with some wild assumptions demonstrates 1) Shadowrunners are not generally a significant force and 2) They are an economic preferred alternative to 'in- house' operatives, despite general unreliability. SEATTLE OF 2050: Population : 3x106 individuals Corporate affiliated: 1.5x106 Below Poverty: 1x106 Thus, we see economically independent units compose 5x105 individuals. We rule out the 'Below Poverty Level' population, as any significantly skilled/cybered/magic unit will be aggressively recruited/have entered poverty voluntarily/will not be counted in standard census. From the UCAS census estimates, we have approximately 1% of the population having 'significant' cyber-enhancements (so called 'samurai', 'riggers' or 'deckers') or significant magical enhancement ('physical adepts'). Full mages compose approximately .1% of the population. Thus, there are approximately 3x104 units of significant personal power in Seattle. Of these units, 3,000 are mages. Due to aggressive corporate recruiting, it is estimated that only 10% of the 'significant' population may be considered 'independent'. Thus, we have 3x103 significant units, of which 300 are mages. For obvious reasons, counting this population is difficult, however, it seems that only approximately 20% of this final group engage in high-risk operations (the remaining 'independents' belonging to various 'normal' occupations). Thus, the 'significant' population available to 'shadowrun' consists of merely 60 mages, 60 skilled 'deckers', approximately 120 riggers, 120 physical adepts, and 300 samurai (numbers do not add due to some overlap in categories, and approximation errors). Given the near-necessity of 'magical cover' on any significant operation, we see an operating population of approximately 100 'teams' of runners within Seattle, composed from a pool of approximately 600 'powered' individuals, and approximately 2,000 skilled personnel in various 'support' positions (so-called 'fixers', 'detectives', 'security consultants', 'cannon- fodder'...) This explains the 'close-knit' nature of an otherwise paranoid profession - the 'teams' generally know of each other, at least by reputation, and in the case of mages, almost certainly by individual (deckers as well). They interact with the same population, travel in the same circles, need the same information, think the same way. Thus, we see that although 'runners' form a relatively large force on the scale they tend to operate, their disorganized nature tends to leave them with little real impact on corporate operations. PART 2: ECONOMICS OF CORPORATE/SHADOWRUNNER INTERACTION. SEATTLE: Median Income: 25 kY/year. This figure is highly unreliable, due to the very visible presence of 'unreported' money floating throughout many credit networks. Cash-flow estimations are therefore difficult, and much more approximate than any other computations. Total cash available to non-corporate individuals: approximately 1010 Y/year. (note - most of this 'income' is in fact passed back and forth between individuals of little note, or flows from the UCAS government to the welfare recipients, and is then returned, allowing the UCAS to claim{digression deleted}) Total cash available to corporate individuals: approximately 1011 Y/year (note - due to the 'pyramid' structure of the society in 2050, most of the money is available to the top 1% of the population, and is unreported due to various tricks with corporate holdings, services provided 'gratis', etc...) Due to the familiar 'money surge' as international financial markets open and close during the daylight hours, approximately 3x109 Y value flows into and out of Seattle each day. This drives a fair amount of 'high finance', but has little effect on the lives of 'independents'. {digression deleted} Assuming corporations, for optimum functioning, require the occasional 'bending' of stringent regulations and laws, since 100% law enforcement has been found to not be cost-effective in 'security maintenance' (see Lone-Star report #115345: 'Optimization of Law Enforcement by the Saad-Dine Algorithm'). Assume 99% of all corporate functioning may be 'above question'. Assume further that plausible deniability may be established for corporate operatives in 90% of the remaining cases. This leaves .1% of funds available, indeed, nearly required, to be spent outside the corporation on 'extra-legal' operations. From our previous numbers, we obtain an estimated 108 Y/year available in the Seattle area for payment of independent operatives. Given the estimated population of 102 teams, this works out to 106 Y/year income per team - a high-paying income, cut into by the various individuals in the network being paid for their support services. (An interesting parallel to income tax may be made here - some free-market assumptions about 'government by market forces' seem to be confirmed.) In practice, there is a strong stratification within runner society- most exist in an environment of rapid cash-flow, and succeed in merely a comfortable existence, punctuated by gambling with their lives. The rare high-success ratio teams are looked upon with great awe, and keep most of the merely adequate teams 'playing with the death lottery', and are often assumed to have some 'favor' or 'technique' that they have hit upon, when in reality most of the difference comes from statistical anomalies (the familiar 'gamblers paradox' restated). Note that the total economic force available to the 'runners' is about a factor of 10 less than the total population of 'independents', and so plays only a minor role in the economic life of the city (welfare recipients alone exceed their cash, although most of it is spent on 'necessities'). APPENDIX: Some interesting breakdowns, and error analysis. The total number of 'runners', seems likely to be accurate to within 50%. Smaller categories may vary by up to 200% (number of mages - shamans are especially notorious for not being counted). With that in mind, however, some interesting secondary data may be applied to our results: Adjusted population ratios: Human: .5 among independents Ork: .2 Elf: .2 Other .1 (these do not equal 'average' population ratios for Seattle, due to aggressive recruiting of humans by corporations, however, the accessibility of cyberware to humans seems to be larger, somewhat balancing this trend). Adjusted education ratios: .7 High School or lower .2 Bachelors or equivalent .1 Ph.D. or other advanced (a large population of 'independents' tend to have informal or unusual educations, if they have them at all, and so are (mis)counted in the lower population. Surprisingly, a large number of advanced degrees are present in the independent population.) Some consequences: There are approximately 45 samurai/adepts presumed to have Ph.D.'s in various fields - these subjects should probably be interviewed for a psychological study, so we can identify dangerous trends in our own employees. Personal curiosity has led me to independently investigate the two known dwarf runner physical adepts possessing Ph.D.'s. It seems that they are twin brothers, and interestingly enough, bitter enemies on the street. {deleted as digression} - Dr. R. Smith-Nabulsi Boeing-Mitsuhama Statistics Group 5. [Dug this out of some corporate's personal files in his headware memory, when a corporate extraction went wrong and we were forced to put him on the open market - thought you might find it amusing - Slash] [I found a similar Renraku report on 'Corporate Cyberware: Cash Efficient or Research Boondoggle' - made some interesting points about cost-optimization within the corporate environment for cyberware. - Elephant]