From: [j--ds--y] at [vaxc.cc.monash.edu.au]
Newsgroups: rec.games.frp.misc
Subject: Shadow Run dice probabilities
Date: 30 Jun 92 15:25:56 +1000
Organization: Computer Centre, Monash University, Australia
Lines: 37
SHADOW RUN: Average Number of Successes
No. of Dice Used)
v Target Number:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
7 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10 8.3 6.7 5.0 3.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11 9.2 7.3 5.5 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
12 10 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
13 11 8.7 6.5 4.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
14 12 9.3 7.0 4.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
15 13 10 7.5 5.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
16 13 11 8.0 5.3 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
17 14 11 8.5 5.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
18 15 12 9.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
19 16 13 9.5 6.3 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
20 17 13 10 6.7 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
This is the number of successes you will get on average. That means that half
the time you will get more and half the time less. An average of 0.1 successes
indicates that you will get a single success 1 roll in 10. For example, if you
roll 20 dice against a target number of 17, you will, on average, only get 0.2
successes. This translates to 1 success every 5 attempts! However, with 6 dice
and a target number of 4, you get 3 successes on average. Each die has a 50/50
chance of succeeding.
Cheers,
James Wadsley.