Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
From: [d--a--p] at [lsid.hp.com] (Dean Payne)
Subject: Re: Handgun Control, Inc., Fact Card
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1993 16:56:15 GMT

>  I leave it up to the reader to spot the multitudes of errors within.

Here are two more reminders.
>***************** HANDGUN CONTROL FACT CARD *******************

>       ...  For example, in 1974 Massachusetts passes the Bartley-Fox
>Law, which requires a special license to carry a handgun outside the
>home or business.  The law is supported by a mandatory prison sentence.
>Studies by Glenn Pierce and William Bowers of Northeastern University
>documented that after the law was passed handgun homicides in
>Massachusetts fell 50% and the number of armed robberies dropped 35%.

According to Kleck ("Point Blank..."), many reports misrepresented the
findings of the various Bartley-Fox studies.

Pierce and Bowers (1981) did not study total homicide or armed robbery.
They did find that both non-gun armed assaults and total armed assaults
increased far more than the gun assault rate declined.

Deutsch and Alt (1977) and Hay and McCleary (1979) also studied Bartley-
Fox.  Both found no change in total homicide rates.  They split over
whether or not total armed robbery was reduced (the former said yes, the
later said no).  Both agreed that gun assaults dropped, but neither
studied non-gun armed assaults nor total assaults.

Each study found that the favorable effect(s) began a month prior to the
effective date of the law.  Hay concluded that its positive effect was
temporary.

Kleck says:
   "In sum, the best available evidence indicates that Bartley-Fox had
   no detectable effect on homicide, may or may not have reduced
   robbery, and _increased_ both total assaults and assault injuries."

For more detail, see Gary Kleck's "Point Blank:  Guns and Violence in
America," pages 387, 392, and 418.


>  In addition, Chicago police report that city's 1981 handgun control
>law has resulted in a 24% drop in handgun homicides.

On an absolute scale, Chicago did see a drop from 1982 until 1989.  

However, the U.S. rate also fell.  On a relative scale, Chicago's
benefit lasted only one year (possibly two - I am missing the 1983 UCR).
By 1984, the rest of the nation had caught up (or down, that is), and
Chicago displayed no more relative benefit.

By 1991, the U.S. rate had climbed back up to its 1981 level.  However,
Chicago's rate had risen even more, to 13% above its 1981 level.


Murder rates per 100,000 population per year 
  (by all means, not just by handguns)

Year    Chicago          U.S.           ratio
1976    (30.84)*         8.75           3.52
1977    (31.00)*         8.84           3.51
1978    (25.71)*         8.97           2.87
1979    27.97            9.75           2.87
1980    28.90           10.22           2.83
1981    29.11            9.83           2.96
1982    22.19            9.07           2.45
1983      -   **         8.25            -
1984    24.60            7.91           3.11
1985    22.21            7.95           2.79
1986    24.77            8.55           2.90
1987    22.89            8.26           2.77
1988    22.04            8.41           2.62
1989    24.83            8.66           2.87
1990    30.57            9.42           3.25
1991    32.90            9.79           3.36

Notes:

   Chicago data is for the city only, not for the entire Metropolitan
   Statistical Area (MSA).

*  Pre-1979 UCRs list populations only for the MSA, not for the core
   city.  Lacking other data for 1976-78, I used the 1979 population.

** 1983 UCR was missing from the library I used, and prior city data
   cannot be extracted from the 1984 edition.

Dean