From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao) Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns Subject: Re: A probable FAQ Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:35:27 GMT RKBA.003 - Homicide per capita in the US Version 1.1 (last changed on 90/04/23 at 23:15:38) DESCRIPTION =========== Homicide by firearms per capita in the US has varied up and down over the years. It has peaked in the middle of the 1930's (Prohibition), declined thereafter, with significant dips during WWI, the Korean war, and the start of the Vietnam war. It has been in a decline again since 1979. The per capita homicide (by firearms) rate is now at a rate equal to that of the late 1930's/early 1940's. A premise of gun control is that reducing the number of guns reduces crime. The corollary is that increasing the number of guns increase crime. The period after WWII, when millions of servicemen returned home with hundreds of thousands of firearms as war souvenir, shows an near- perfect flat line. However, the period after the passage of the most infamous anti-gun laws (GCA68 - the Gun Control Act of 1968) shows a dramatic and fairly sudden increase in homicides (by firearms) per capita. What can be seen is that a sudden reduction of men in the age group of 18-24 (the age groups that commits the most crimes) shows a sudden reduction in homicides (as well as other crimes). The three wars, WWII, Korean, and Vietnam show these dips. In addition, a plot (not shown) of all firearms-not-used homicides (knives, poison, hands, feet, explosives etc.) shows a near identical plot. In other words, the TOTAL per capita murder rate for guns and all others go up and down together. CONCLUSION ========== No correlation can be shown by U.S. national homicide figures that reducing or restricting the number of guns reduces homicides. GRAPH ===== The Y-axis is 5 homicides/non-negligent homicides per 1,000,000. The X- axis is 1.2 years (squeezed to fit), starting at 1915. 1979 | + :::::::::::::::::##:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::#::::::: :::::::::::::::###:#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::##:::#::##::::: ::::::::::::##:::::::#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::####::##::::::#:#:: ::::::::#:::::::::::::#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::##::::::::::::::::#:#: :::::#:::::::::::::::::::#::::###:::::::::::::::::#::::::::::::::::::::# :::#:#:::::::::::::::::::::#:#:::#::::::::::::::#::::::::::::::::::::::: :#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::#::########:::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: + + + + | | | | 1915 1942 1967 1988 Sources: BOC75, BOC89, UCR82, UCR85, UCR87. -end- --------------------- If you don't see the moral answer to the problem, use -- Phil Ronzone [p k r] at [sgi.COM] {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr --------------------- the universal can opener: "Whose property/life is it?" --