From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
Subject: Re: A probable FAQ
Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:35:27 GMT

RKBA.003 - Homicide per capita in the US
           Version 1.1 (last changed on 90/04/23 at 23:15:38)

DESCRIPTION
===========
Homicide by firearms per capita in the US has varied up and down over 
the years. It has peaked in the middle of the 1930's (Prohibition), 
declined thereafter, with significant dips during WWI, the Korean war, 
and the start of the Vietnam war. It has been in a decline again since 
1979.

The per capita homicide (by firearms) rate is now at a rate equal to 
that of the late 1930's/early 1940's.

A premise of gun control is that reducing the number of guns reduces 
crime. The corollary is that increasing the number of guns increase 
crime. The period after WWII, when millions of servicemen returned home 
with hundreds of thousands of firearms as war souvenir, shows an near-
perfect flat line.

However, the period after the passage of the most infamous anti-gun laws 
(GCA68 - the Gun Control Act of 1968) shows a dramatic and fairly sudden 
increase in homicides (by firearms) per capita.

What can be seen is that a sudden reduction of men in the age group of 
18-24 (the age groups that commits the most crimes) shows a sudden 
reduction in homicides (as well as other crimes). The three wars, WWII, 
Korean, and Vietnam show these dips.

In addition, a plot (not shown) of all firearms-not-used homicides 
(knives, poison, hands, feet, explosives etc.) shows a near identical 
plot. In other words, the TOTAL per capita murder rate for guns and all 
others go up and down together.


CONCLUSION
==========
No correlation can be shown by U.S. national homicide figures that 
reducing or restricting the number of guns reduces homicides.


GRAPH
=====
The Y-axis is 5 homicides/non-negligent homicides per 1,000,000. The X-
axis is 1.2 years (squeezed to fit), starting at 1915.

                                                             1979
                                                                |
                                                                +
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::::::::#:::::::::::::#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::##::::::::::::::::#:#:
:::::#:::::::::::::::::::#::::###:::::::::::::::::#::::::::::::::::::::#
:::#:#:::::::::::::::::::::#:#:::#::::::::::::::#:::::::::::::::::::::::
:#:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::#::########::::::::::::::::::::::::::
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+                                    +                 +               +
|                                    |                 |               |
1915                              1942              1967            1988



Sources: BOC75, BOC89, UCR82, UCR85, UCR87.

-end-
--------------------- If you don't see the moral answer to the problem, use --
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