From: [b--en--n] at [nova.enet.dec.com] (Hal Berenson)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
Subject: Gun Control and last November's elections
Date: 9 JAN 94 18:00:49 EDT


There has been much speculation as to the reasons that Christine Todd
Whitman beat NJ Governor Jim Florio and George Allen beat Mary Sue Terry
in the Virginia Governor's race.  You may recall that both Florio and
Terry ran very anti-gun, anti-NRA campaigns that tried to discredit the
NRA and link their opponent to the NRA.  This tactic obviously didn't
work, and now the real analysis is coming in.

To a political professional, from the campaign managers and staff to the
candidates themselves, the most important publication available is NOT
Time, The Washington Post, or The New York Times.  The most important
publication for a political professional is a "trade" magazine called
CAMPAIGNS & ELECTIONS.  C&E is the bible of the politician.  The
December/January edition (Vol 15, No. 1) of C&E contains polls and
analysis of the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races.  Remember, this
is what every campaign manager in the country will be reading and
thinking about as they plan for the November 1994 mid-term election.

The NJ race is analyzed by Dr. Frank Luntz and Mike Dabadie of Lunz Weber
Research & Strategic Services.  They are a Washingon DC based Republican
polling firm.  The basic conclusion is that economic issues dominated the
election.  "On election day, 40 percent had the issue of taxes at the top
of their priority list.  Another 16 percent cited the poor economy,
unemployment and the budget as their most important concern.  No other
topic came close...."  The analysis goes on to say "Florio's attempt to
re-focus the election on non-economic subjects was a failure.  In
particular, only 7.6 percent of the electorate cited crime and/or guns as
their main issue of concern - the primary focus of the Florio campaign.
He did destroy the image of the National Rifle Association (29 percent
favorable; 58 percent unfavorable), but was unable to link the resulting
unpopularity of the NRA with Whitman's candidacy."  Florio was successful
in the public opinion fight over gun control, with 61 percent favoring
Florio's approach while 23 percent favored Whitman's.    The article
has considerable additional analysis, though only a little is applicable
to the gun control issue.  The bottom line is that despite Florio being
able to turn public opinion in favor of gun control and against the NRA,
it didn't help his campaign.  Negative campaigning DID hurt him according
to the analysis, so he simultaneously popularized his political position
while destroying his electability.

The Virginia campaign was analyzed by Democratic pollster Joe E. Walker.
In this campaign, it is quite clear that gun control played a major part
in Allen's victory over Terry.  "On gun control, Allen led Terry 48 to 37
percent, despite the fact that Terry targeted this issue and allocated a
substantial portion of her well-funded media campaign to attacking
Allen's opposition to gun control and his support from the National Rifle
Association."  Walker is even more explicit about this: "In Virgina, even
though the NRA has its share of enemies, it still maintained a net
favorable image (by five points) even after fierce attacks from the
Democratic ticket.  With 54 percent of the electorate claiming to be gun
owners and with 48 percent rating the NRA favorably...the NRA is in a
strong position to offset criticism by mobilizing its large membership.
Take northern Virginia, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, where the
NRA rates the poorest (34 favorable/59 unfavorable).  But even in this
region, Allen was perceived as being better able to handle crime by a
considerable 54 to 29 percent margin over Terry."  Terry also suffered
backlash from her use of negative campaign ads.

There you have it.  Republican pollster Lunz Weber says gun control
didn't really play in the NJ race, despite Florio's attempts to make it
play.  Democratic pollster Walker says that crime and gun control were
primary issues in Virginia, and Terry's pro-gun control/anti-NRA campaign
contributed significantly to her defeat.

.............................................................................

Hal Berenson	

Home: [71640 3535] at [compuserve.com]
Work: [b--en--n] at [nova.enet.dec.com]

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