From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao) Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns Subject: Re: A probable FAQ Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:33:23 GMT "Targeting the Children" (TIME, 6 November 1989 pg. 36. w/o permission) One appalling result of America's fixation with firearms was disclosed last week. A study by the National Center for Health Statistics found that 3,392 children ages 1 through 19 were killed in homicides, suicides, and accidents with guns in 1987, accounting for 11% of deaths in that age group. No nation comes close to the U.S. in such fatalities. In 1985 not a single teenage male was the victim of a gun-related homicide in England or Sweden. The most frequent victims of the U.S. carnage were black males age 15 to 19: 49.2 per 100,000 in this group died in 1987 from the homicidal use of guns. Among whites, the rate was 5.1 per 100,000. Said Health and Human Services Secretary Louis Sullivan: "We are losing our youth increasingly to injury and violence." ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Now, let's take a look at these numbers, and the way TIME reported them. NCHS says that 3392 people aged 1 - 19 either were killed, committed suicide, or died in an accident by guns. Calling 18 and 19 year-olds "children" is stretching it a bit. Does anyone know any 18 or 19 year-olds that like to be "child"? Homicides: ---------- Using data from the 1988 (released 6 August 1989) FBI Uniform Crime Reports "Crime in the United States", I found the following data for 1988 murders: (I know, TIME's number is from 1987, but this is for comparison purposes) [Population data for 1987 from US Statistical Abstract] Age Population Murders Rate Group in this age group per 100000 ----- ----------------- ------- ---------- 1 - 4 18,252,000(*) 44 0.24 5 - 9 17,661,000 56 0.32 10 - 14 16,485,000 136 0.82 15 - 19 18,497,000 1292 6.98 Total 1 - 19 70,895,000 1528 2.16 (*) - Includes infants less than 1 year of age. ========================================================================== First off, of the murders in this group, almost 85% are in the 15-19 group. Hardly the image TIME presents of thousands of little kids killed by guns. Also, TIME notes that the rate for black males 15 - 19 is 49.2 per 100,000, and for whites (assuming white males, as opposed to all 15 - 19 whites) is 5.1 per 100,000. Let's find out how many deaths that is: Rate Population Number ---- ---------- ------ Black 49.2 1,406,000 692 White 5.1 7,664,000 391 Total 12.02 9,070,000 1083 =========================================================================== So, of the 1528 homicides of people 1 - 19, fully 45.2% are teen black males, 25.6% are white teen males. These two groups comprise almost 71% of all homicide victims in this group. Suicides: --------- From the US Statistical Abstract, the rates (and the numbers I derived) for suicides, all causes, are as follows (ages under 10 were not even listed): Age Rate Population Number ------- ---- ---------- ------ 10 - 14 1.5 16,485,000 247 15 - 19 10.2 18,497,000 1886 Total 10 - 19 6.1 34,982,000 2133 Let's break this down by sex and age (you'll see why in a minute): Group Rate Population Number ----- ---- ---------- ------ White male 10 - 14 1.1 6,803,000 75 White male 15 - 19 18.2 7,664,000 1395 Black male 10 - 14 1.5 1,314,000 20 Black male 15 - 19 7.1 1,406,000 100 Males, 10 - 19 9.3 17,187,000 1590 White female 10 - 14 0.7 6,442,000 45 White female 15 - 19 4.1 7,350,000 301 Black female 10 - 14 0.4 1,275,000 5 Black female 15 - 19 2.1 1,384,000 29 Females, 10 - 19 2.3 16,451,000 380 Total 5.9 33,638,000 1970 =========================================================================== Now, this data is for *all methods* of suicide, not just firearms. There is another table that gives method by sex, as follows: Firearms used, male: 64.1% Firearms used, female: 39.5% Taking these percentages as approximations for the 10 - 19 age group, we get Group Number By firearm --------------- ------ ---------- Males 10 - 19 1590 1020 Females 10 - 19 380 150 =========================================================================== This gives a total of 1170 deaths for ages 10 - 19 (and 1 - 19, I assume) for suicides committed with firearms. Accidents: ---------- Now, let's look at accidents involving guns in the 1 - 19 age group. I don't have data handy (I did this at home from my own materials) that shows firearm accidents for different age, race, and sex groups. However, in 1986, from the US Statistical Abstract, the death rate from firearms accidents was 0.6 per 100,000 for the whole US. Using this as an approximation for this age group, we find that about 425 people aged 1 - 19 in this group were killed in accidents involving firearms. However, subtracting suicides and homicides from the total number of deaths leaves 694 deaths. (3392 - (1170 + 1528)). So, I'll take the higher number, just to get the numbers to work. Summary: -------- Deaths Percentage of total ------ ---------- 691 black males 15 - 19 20.37 391 white males 15 - 19 11.53 ----- ----- 1,082 males 15 - 19 31.90 ----- 1,528 homicides total 45.05 1,170 suicides 34.49 694 accidents 20.46 3,392 total 100.00 =========================================================================== So, about 1/5 of the "children" killed by guns are black teen males 15 to 19 years old. Can you say "drugs"? Add in white teen males, and we get almost a 1/3 of all "children" killed by guns in the 15 - 19 age group. Despite claims from others on the NET, the NRA spokesman (still unknown) was essentially correct in pointing out that a major chunk is taken by these aggressive black and white teenage males. Also, about 35% of that 3,392 number is suicides, and of that 35%, most is suicides by white males 15 - 19. I think that the way this has been presented by the media is atrocious. However, I am not surprised, given the omnipresent anti-gun hysteria the media has. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Gary Strand (I'm the SAF!) "The people never give up their liberties [s t rand w g] at [ncar.ucar.edu] but under some delusion." - Edmund Burke From [p k r] at [maddog.sgi.com] Fri Nov 3 12:32:17 1989 Relay-Version: version Notes 2.8.2 87/11/24; site hprnd.HP.COM From: [p k r] at [maddog.sgi.com] (Phil Ronzone) Date: Fri, 3 Nov 1989 20:32:17 GMT Date-Received: Mon, 6 Nov 1989 05:07:33 GMT Subject: STATISTICS 3 (long) Message-ID: <[1--0] at [odin.SGI.COM]> Organization: Silicon Graphics, Inc., Mountain View, CA Path: hprnd!hpcupt1!hpda!hplabs!hp-sdd!ucsdhub!sdcsvax!network.ucsd.edu!ucsd!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!cs.utexas.edu!uunet!lll-winken!arisia!sgi!shinobu!odin!maddog.sgi.com!pkr Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns Sender: [n--s] at [odin.SGI.COM] Reply-To: [p k r] at [maddog.sgi.com] (Phil Ronzone) Lines: 317 I promised a few weeks back to post research on some of the basic issues of guns and gun controls. Some of the information I have posted before, but I haved finished the main part now, a study of guns and the murder rate. I have asked four questions -- 1. In murders, are guns becoming more the weapon of use, staying the same, or becoming less? 2. Is the per capita murder rate rising, staying the same, or dropping? 3. Is the per capita accidental death by gun rate rising, staying the same, or dropping? 4. Is the murder rate tied to the number of guns? I.e., is the number of murders per "gun-capita" going up, staying the same, or declining? In other words, if "guns cause crime", then the more guns per capita you have, the more crime per capita you should have. ****************************************************************************** THE ANSWERS 1. NO CHANGE IN USE OF GUNS AS A MURDER WEAPON FOR OVER 60 YEARS. The ratio of murder weapons (guns, knives, fists/beating, etc.) to each other has remained identical to one another from 1910 to 1988. The variation is very small, especially when viewed graphically. 2. PER CAPITA MURDER RATE IS DROPPING. The per capita murder rate peaked at an all time high in 1933 (62 per 1,000,000), and then dropped slowly to 23 in 1957. It began rising again (in the "Love In Decade") to a high of 59 in 1980, with the sharpest increase coming in the 1966-1969 period (the Gun Control Act of 1968 happened then) and is now dropping back down again to 45 in 1988. 3. ACCIDENTAL DEATHS BY GUNS STEADILY DECLINING. Accidental deaths by firearms have been consistently dropping, and will reach zero at the current rate (the slope of the last 30 years) around the year 2018. 4. MURDER RATE BY GUNS DECLINING. *** WARNING -- EXTRAPOLATION *** These figures are extrapolated from incomplete records and assumptions of steady per capita new gun production rates. Without an accurate count of the number of existing guns per year, these figures must be treated very carefully. I have erred on the VERY LOW side of guns-in-existence per year figures -- I may as much as a factor of four too low! The US is adding 4,600,000 new guns each year, losing 1,760,000 (1% of a 1988 base of 176,000,000 guns), leaving a net gain of ~3,500,000 guns. In that same year, we added about 2,200,000 people. I.e., our gun propulation is growing faster than our human population. The number of people murdered by guns, per the total number of guns in existence each year, is DECLINING betweenn 1.6% and 3.1% per year. In spreadsheet simulations, the last ten years (for which accurate gun production figures are know) have shown a 2.7% decline each year on the average. I THEREFORE STATE, AS SPECULATION NOT FACT, THAT MURDERS PER GUN ARE DECLINING 2.5% EACH YEAR, AND MAYBE AS MUCH AS 6.9%. ****************************************************************************** THE RAW NUMBERS The following is the best representation I can make with a text only graph. This graph is of total murders from 1910 through 1988. The horizontal axis is years (1910 to 1988), and the vertical axis is murders per 1,000,000. There is a peak in the 1930's. I assume this is the Depression and Prohibition. There are sharp drops during WWII and Vietnam (the early years). There is a sharp increase in 1967 -- the data collection methods changed and the references all warn that the data is NOT comparable to earlier years. It appears that more efficient data collection methods started then. What is MOST amazing is something I can't show here. This chart is produced from a database that breaks down murders by firearms, strangling, fists, poison, knives, etc. The total murder curve shown below is identical with the murder by guns, murder by knives, etc. curves! I.e., the same proportion of weapons is used to kill, regardless of the per capita murder rate. I use Microsoft Excel 2.2 to do the plots -- it's eerie to see the matching curves. If you have a plotting spreadsheet, try it yourself, or send a SASE to me at 22330 Homestead Rd. No. 226, Cupertino, CA, 95014, and I'll send you a copy of the plot on paper. The following chart was done by hand. + ++ + +++ + ++ + ++ ++ + ++++ ++ + + + + ++ + + + + +++ + + + + + + + + | + ++++++++ | | | | | | | | | =========================================================================== ADBF = Accidental Deaths By Firearm TM = Total Murders TMBF = Total Murders By Firearm TMNBF = Total Murders NOT By Firearm ADBF1M = Accidental Deaths By Firearm per 1,000,000 MBF1M = Murders By Firearm per 1,000,000 MNBF1M = Murders NOT By Firearm per 1,000,000 YEAR POPULATION ADBF TM TMBF TMNBF ADBF1M MBF1M MNBF1M ---- ----------- ----- ------- ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ 1905 83,822,000 2,000 23.86 1906 85,450,000 2,100 24.58 1907 87,008,000 1,700 19.54 1908 88,710,000 1,900 21.42 1909 90,490,000 1,600 17.68 1910 92,407,000 1,900 2,161 1,174 987 20.56 12.70 10.68 1911 93,863,000 2,100 2,978 1,743 1,235 22.37 18.57 13.16 1912 95,335,000 2,100 2,938 1,775 1,163 22.03 18.62 12.20 1913 97,225,000 2,400 3,521 2,123 1,398 24.69 21.84 14.38 1914 99,111,000 2,300 3,776 2,366 1,410 23.21 23.87 14.23 1915 100,546,000 2,100 3,633 2,213 1,420 20.89 22.01 14.12 1916 101,961,000 2,200 4,237 2,708 1,529 21.58 26.56 15.00 1917 103,268,000 2,300 4,864 3,205 1,659 22.27 31.04 16.06 1918 103,208,000 2,500 5,113 3,475 1,638 24.22 33.67 15.87 1919 104,514,000 2,800 5,973 4,247 1,726 26.79 40.64 16.51 1920 106,461,000 2,700 5,815 4,178 1,637 25.36 39.24 15.38 1921 108,538,000 2,800 7,090 5,178 1,912 25.80 47.71 17.62 1922 110,049,000 2,900 7,381 5,430 1,951 26.35 49.34 17.73 1923 111,947,000 2,900 7,557 5,422 2,135 25.91 48.43 19.07 1924 114,109,000 2,900 8,014 5,736 2,278 25.41 50.27 19.96 1925 115,829,000 2,800 8,440 5,908 2,532 24.17 51.01 21.86 1926 117,397,000 2,800 8,740 6,035 2,705 23.85 51.41 23.04 1927 119,035,000 3,000 8,997 6,004 2,993 25.20 50.44 25.14 1928 120,509,000 2,900 9,780 6,668 3,112 24.06 55.33 25.82 1929 121,767,000 3,200 9,637 6,362 3,275 26.28 52.25 26.90 1930 123,077,000 3,200 10,331 6,995 3,336 26.00 56.83 27.10 1931 124,040,000 3,100 10,862 7,335 3,527 24.99 59.13 28.43 1932 124,840,000 3,000 10,722 7,252 3,470 24.03 58.09 27.80 1933 125,579,000 3,014 12,124 7,863 4,261 24.00 62.61 33.93 1934 126,374,000 3,033 12,055 7,702 4,353 24.00 60.95 34.45 1935 127,250,000 2,799 10,587 6,506 4,081 22.00 51.13 32.07 1936 128,053,000 2,817 10,232 6,016 4,216 22.00 46.98 32.92 1937 128,825,000 2,576 9,811 5,701 4,110 20.00 44.25 31.90 1938 129,825,000 2,726 8,799 5,055 3,744 21.00 38.94 28.84 1939 130,880,000 2,618 8,394 4,799 3,595 20.00 36.67 27.47 1940 132,122,000 2,375 8,329 4,655 3,674 17.98 35.23 27.81 1941 133,402,000 2,396 8,048 4,525 3,523 17.96 33.92 26.41 1942 134,860,000 2,678 7,890 4,204 3,686 19.86 31.17 27.33 1943 136,739,000 2,282 6,823 3,444 3,379 16.69 25.19 24.71 1944 138,397,000 2,392 6,675 3,449 3,226 17.28 24.92 23.31 1945 139,928,000 2,385 7,547 4,029 3,518 17.04 28.79 25.14 1946 141,389,000 2,801 8,913 4,966 3,947 19.81 35.12 27.92 1947 144,126,000 2,439 8,708 4,922 3,786 16.92 34.15 26.27 1948 146,631,000 2,191 8,654 4,894 3,760 14.94 33.38 25.64 1949 149,188,000 2,330 7,756 4,235 3,521 15.62 28.39 23.60 1950 151,684,000 2,174 7,660 4,179 3,481 14.33 27.55 22.95 1951 154,287,000 2,247 7,268 3,898 3,370 14.56 25.26 21.84 1952 156,954,000 2,210 7,798 4,244 3,554 14.08 27.04 22.64 1953 159,565,000 2,277 7,385 4,013 3,372 14.27 25.15 21.13 1954 162,391,000 2,271 7,491 4,115 3,376 13.98 25.34 20.79 1955 165,275,000 2,120 7,191 3,807 3,384 12.83 23.03 20.47 1956 168,221,000 2,202 7,403 4,039 3,364 13.09 24.01 20.00 1957 171,274,000 2,369 7,413 4,010 3,403 13.83 23.41 19.87 1958 174,141,000 2,172 7,586 4,230 3,356 12.47 24.29 19.27 1959 177,073,000 2,258 7,932 4,457 3,475 12.75 25.17 19.62 1960 180,671,000 2,334 8,219 4,627 3,592 12.92 25.61 19.88 1961 183,691,000 2,204 8,341 4,753 3,588 12.00 25.87 19.53 1962 186,538,000 2,092 8,826 4,954 3,872 11.21 26.56 20.76 1963 189,242,000 2,263 8,979 5,126 3,853 11.96 27.09 20.36 1964 191,889,000 2,275 9,536 5,474 4,062 11.86 28.53 21.17 1965 194,303,000 2,344 10,441 6,158 4,283 12.06 31.69 22.04 1966 196,560,000 2,558 11,308 6,855 4,453 13.01 34.87 22.65 1967 198,712,000 2,896 13,038 8,332 4,706 14.57 41.93 23.68 1968 200,706,000 2,394 14,336 9,425 4,911 11.93 46.96 24.47 1969 202,677,000 2,309 15,123 10,174 4,949 11.39 50.20 24.42 1970 204,879,000 2,406 16,515 11,213 5,302 11.74 54.73 25.88 1971 207,661,000 2,360 16,183 10,680 5,503 11.36 51.43 26.50 1972 209,896,000 2,442 16,192 10,739 5,453 11.63 51.16 25.98 1973 211,909,000 2,618 17,123 11,249 5,874 12.35 53.08 27.72 1974 213,854,000 2,613 18,632 12,474 6,158 12.22 58.33 28.80 1975 215,854,000 2,380 18,642 12,061 6,581 11.03 55.88 30.49 1976 218,035,000 2,059 16,605 10,592 6,013 9.44 48.58 27.58 1977 220,239,000 1,982 18,033 11,274 6,759 9.00 51.19 30.69 1978 222,585,000 1,806 18,714 11,910 6,804 8.11 53.51 30.57 1979 225,055,000 2,004 20,591 13,040 7,551 8.90 57.94 33.55 1980 227,757,000 1,955 21,860 13,650 8,210 8.58 59.93 36.05 1981 230,138,000 1,871 20,053 12,523 7,530 8.13 54.42 32.72 1982 232,520,000 1,756 20,031 12,513 7,518 7.55 53.81 32.33 1983 234,799,000 1,695 18,673 10,895 7,778 7.22 46.40 33.13 1984 237,001,000 1,668 17,260 10,175 7,085 7.04 42.93 29.89 1985 239,279,000 1,649 17,545 10,296 7,249 6.89 43.03 30.30 1986 241,613,000 1,600 19,257 11,381 7,876 6.62 47.10 32.60 1987 243,915,000 1,400 17,859 10,556 7,303 5.74 43.28 29.94 1988 246,113,000 18,269 11,084 7,185 45.04 29.19 ****************************************************************************** NUMBERS OF FIREARMS MANUFACTURED IN THE UNITED STATES CJS87 has data for firearms manufacture from 1977 through 1984. The starting and ending years are consistent with the intermediate years (although 1980 and 1981 saw a total of 5.6 and 5.7 million guns total). These figures do NOT include firearms manufactured for the military AND do NOT include imports (TV news claims over 800,000 AK47 rifles imported in 1988). 1977 Total guns ........... 4,904,422 Total handguns ... 1,879,645 Pistols ...... 452,667 Revolvers .... 1,426,978 Total long guns .. 3,024,777 Rifles ....... 1,839,925 Shotguns ..... 1,184,852 1984 Total guns ........... 4,651,477 Total handguns ... 1,679,709 Pistols ...... 752,919 Revolver ..... 926,790 Total long guns .. 2,966,838 Rifles ......... 1,622,890 Shotguns ....... 1,860,077 This gives us a figure of one new gun produced per 47 people per year. Guns for the most part do not wear out. In Shotgun News, there are a great many advertisements for rifles and pistols made in 1917, 1903, 1910, etc. Based on police confiscation records (most confiscated guns are destroyed), informal figures from gun stores that provide gun smith services, a HIGH figure would be that every year, much less than 1% of all guns are destroyed, lost, or otherwise permanently "gone". Note that 1% of all guns is 1,700,000 in 1988!! I think it is MUCH less than 1%, but, we'll use that for now. Assuming a per capita production rate of 1 new gun every year per 47 people, and a 1% of ALL guns lost each year, AND a FALSE assumption of ZERO guns existing in 1910, the U.S. now has 176,000,000 guns. REMEMBER - we're adding 4,600,000 new guns each year, losing 1,700,000, leaving a net gain of 3,500,000 guns. In that same year, we added about 2,200,000 people. Thus, there were 17,094 guns for each murder in 1987, and 17,433 guns for each murder in 1988. The plot shows a slowly declining sine wave of a 1.2% to 3.1% INCREASE in guns for each person killed (per year). ****************************************************************************** REFERENCES BCS88 The California Department of Justice, Division of Law Enforcement, Criminal Identification and Information Branch, Bureau of Criminal Statistics and Special Services, BCS Outlook Crime 1988 in Selected California Law Enforcement Jurisdictions, January through December, March 1989. BCS89 The California Department of Justice, Division of Law Enforcement, Criminal Identification and Information Branch, Bureau of Criminal Statistics and Special Services, BCS Outlook Crime 1989 in Selected California Law Enforcement Jurisdictions, January through June, August 1989. BOC75 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 2, Washington, DC, 1975. BOC82 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1982-83. (103th edition.) Washington, DC, 1982 [sic]. BOC89 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1989 (109th edition.) Washington, DC, 1989. CJS83 United States Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 1983. CJS87 United States Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 1987. NSC88 National Safety Council, Accident Facts 1988 Edition, Chicago, IL, 1988. Available via Customer Service, National Service Council, 444 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Illinois 60611. (800) 621-7619. UCR82 U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports 1982. UCR85 U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports 1985. UCR87 U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports 1987. ****************************************************************************** All calculations done by Microsoft Excel 2.2 on a Macintosh II. For a copy of the Execl spreadsheet, send an 800K NEW UNFORMATTED FLOPPY with a return, postage pre-paid mailer to: 22330 Homestead Rd. No. 226, Cupertino, CA, 95014 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Phil Ronzone Manager Secure UNIX [p k r] at [sgi.COM] {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr Silicon Graphics, Inc. "I never vote, it only encourages 'em ..." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------