From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
Subject: Re: A probable FAQ
Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:33:03 GMT
More statistics. I said in a previous posting that I would be posting parts 2
and 3. I've decided just to post various relevant statistics as fast as I
can compile and integrate them into meaningful formats. It has all turned out
to be a bigger task than I thought (although much more interesting than I
thought).
I'm trying to orient the postings to the relevant topics of discussion.
So I thought I'd post first on the overall trend in accidental deaths by
guns, then look at suicides, then try to get to the trend in South Carolina.
The following table is derived from three sources:
[4] U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1989
(109th Edition).", Washington, DC, 1989. This is for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, DC 20402 (202) 783-3238
[5] U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Historical Statistics of the United States,
Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 2". Washington, DC 1975.
This is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 (202) 783-3238
Stock number 003-024-00120-9
[6] Statistics Department, National Safety Council. "Accidents Facts 1988
Edition". National Safety Council.
444 N. Michigan Avenue, Chicago IL 606111 (800) 621-7619
The specific parts refered to are: [1] page 7, [2] page 10, [3] pages 19-20.
ACCIDENTAL DEATHS BY FIREARM PER 1,000,000 PEOPLE (USA)
-------------------------------------------------------
The overall trend of accidental deaths by firearm in the United States
has been a steady decline since 1933 through 1986. The decline has been
on the order of 4 to 1! I.e., in 1933 we had 24.00 people accidentally
killed by firearms per 1,000,000 people, in 1986 we had 5.74 killed.
I have included the statistics to 1903, the earliest date I have figures
for. However, while these figures support the decline, they all end in 00
(2400, 2800, 2100) which leads me to suspect the accuracy.
In addition, a big drop in 1967 to 1968 (and the 1967 figures themselves)
reflect a change in how accidental deaths are reported. I have no further
reference other than that note in the source material. Based on some
descriptions of the data, it appears that some types of firearm deaths
in an unknown category were moved to murder/manslaughter (suspect freed
on a technicality ???? Your guess).
In any case, the data is outstandingly obvious that accidental deaths by
firearms are in a steady decline. I plotted the data using Microsoft Excel,
and extending the line (remarkably straight since 1946), I expect accidental
deaths by firearms to reach zero by the year 2013!!!
By all means, graph/plot the data. If any wants to, send me a SASE at the
address below and I'll put a copy of the graph in it and mail it back.
Now, I would have like to plot the annual production of firearms. However, I
only have firearms production from 1977 through 1985. Firearms production
has ranged (in those years) from 4.6 million to 5.7 million production. This
is DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ONLY.
I remember reading that (I'm trying to track this down), imports of foreign
semi-automatic rifles went from 30,000 in 1985 to over 800,000 in 1988. I
assume many of those are AK47S Chinese manufacture.
Thus, in the last four years we may have had a large increase to over 6 million
weapons produced/imported, yet the trend in accidental deaths is still going
down (especially sharply in the last four years).
I would thus assert that firearms are inherently safe devices, and that
whatever educational or other forces exist are reinforcing proper handling
of firearms.
One last note -- I'm still trying to figure out how many rounds of ammunition
are produced each year. It struck me that in almost every firearm purchase I've
seen in a gun store, the purchaser almost always buys a box of ammunition.
Thus, in 1984:
Total handguns produced ... 1,679,709 * 50-round box of ammo = 83,985,450
Total long guns produced .. 2,966,838 * 20-round box of ammo = 59,336,760
gives 143,322,210 totals round (probably very low).
If we assume that they were all expended, this gives us 85,924 rounds
per each one of the 1,668 people accidently killed by guns in 1984.
For something "just designed to kill", as I believe Mr. Shallit so
erroneously asserted, that is one HECK of a lousy design!!!!
TFAD = Total Firearms Accidental Deaths
TFAD/PM = Total Firearms Accidental Deaths Per Million
Year Population TFAD TFAD/PM
---- ---------- ----- -------
1903 79,163,000 2,500 31.58
1904 82,166,000 2,800 34.08
1905 83,822,000 2,000 23.86
1906 85,450,000 2,100 24.58
1907 87,008,000 1,700 19.54
1908 88,710,000 1,900 21.42
1909 90,490,000 1,600 17.68
1910 92,407,000 1,900 20.56
1911 93,863,000 2,100 22.37
1912 95,335,000 2,100 22.03
1913 97,225,000 2,400 24.69
1914 99,111,000 2,300 23.21
1915 100,546,000 2,100 20.89
1916 101,961,000 2,200 21.58
1917 103,268,000 2,300 22.27
1918 103,208,000 2,500 24.22
1919 104,514,000 2,800 26.79
1920 106,461,000 2,700 25.36
1921 108,538,000 2,800 25.80
1922 110,049,000 2,900 26.35
1923 111,947,000 2,900 25.91
1924 114,109,000 2,900 25.41
1925 115,829,000 2,800 24.17
1926 117,397,000 2,800 23.85
1927 119,035,000 3,000 25.20
1928 120,509,000 2,900 24.06
1929 121,767,000 3,200 26.28
1930 123,077,000 3,200 26.00
1931 124,040,000 3,100 24.99
1932 124,840,000 3,000 24.03
1933 125,579,000 3,014 24.00
1934 126,374,000 3,033 24.00
1935 127,250,000 2,799 22.00
1936 128,053,000 2,817 22.00
1937 128,825,000 2,576 20.00
1938 129,825,000 2,726 21.00
1939 130,880,000 2,618 20.00
1940 132,122,000 2,375 17.98
1941 133,402,000 2,396 17.96
1942 134,860,000 2,678 19.86
1943 136,739,000 2,282 16.69
1944 138,397,000 2,392 17.28
1945 139,928,000 2,385 17.04
1946 141,389,000 2,801 19.81
1947 144,126,000 2,439 16.92
1948 146,631,000 2,191 14.94
1949 149,188,000 2,330 15.62
1950 151,684,000 2,174 14.33
1951 154,287,000 2,247 14.56
1952 156,954,000 2,210 14.08
1953 159,565,000 2,277 14.27
1954 162,391,000 2,271 13.98
1955 165,275,000 2,120 12.83
1956 168,221,000 2,202 13.09
1957 171,274,000 2,369 13.83
1958 174,141,000 2,172 12.47
1959 177,073,000 2,258 12.75
1960 180,671,000 2,334 12.92
1961 183,691,000 2,204 12.00
1962 186,538,000 2,092 11.21
1963 189,242,000 2,263 11.96
1964 191,889,000 2,275 11.86
1965 194,303,000 2,344 12.06
1966 196,560,000 2,558 13.01
1967 198,712,000 2,896 14.57
1968 200,706,000 2,394 11.93
1969 202,677,000 2,309 11.39
1970 204,879,000 2,406 11.74
1971 207,661,000 2,360 11.36
1972 209,896,000 2,442 11.63
1973 211,909,000 2,618 12.35
1974 213,854,000 2,613 12.22
1975 215,854,000 2,380 11.03
1976 218,035,000 2,059 9.44
1977 220,239,000 1,982 9.00
1978 222,585,000 1,806 8.11
1979 225,055,000 2,004 8.90
1980 227,757,000 1,955 8.58
1981 230,138,000 1,871 8.13
1982 232,520,000 1,756 7.55
1983 234,799,000 1,695 7.22
1984 237,001,000 1,668 7.04
1985 239,279,000 1,649 6.89
1986 241,613,000 1,600 6.62
1987 243,915,000 1,400 5.74
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