From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
Subject: Re: A probable FAQ
Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:34:03 GMT
>In article <[1--4] at [telesci.UUCP]> [c--ol--i] at [telesci.UUCP] (Christopher Ciolorito) writes:
>Is a criminal(or other violent type) going to be more likely to
>try to strangle someone, or stab them, etc.. or is he going to stand
>20 meters away, fire a shot and run? Believe me, most criminals are
>cowards, if they had to face one-to-one a person they wanted to kill
>they would think ten times before doing it!
I posted a factual rebuttal to this early and it won't kill.
The earlier data was for areas of california (wrong file).
The better data follows:
An implication here is that without guns, murders would be "harder" or
more difficult to commit, and hence there should be fewer murders.
This is clearly not the case.
On a per-capita basis, some of the higher murder rates are in areas
of very strong gun control (Northeast US, Washington DC, NYX, Mass.
etc.).
And gun control does have an effect! It does NOT reduce the murder rate.
It DOES shift the murder rate to knives, fists, etc.
[1] U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics,
"Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics 1987". Release date of
August, 1988 Copies may be obtained (if unavailable in your library)
from (price unknown):
Justice Statistics Clearinghouse/NCJRS
U.S. Department of Justice
User Services Department 2
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20850
This is an extremely comprehensive book. Just about any statistic,
broken down by all kinds of factors (race, religion, rural .vs.
suburban, big .vs. little city, and so on).
MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, WEAPONS USED
-------------------------------------------------
Data from CSJ[1] (page 337), which in turn credits major parts of
UCR[2]. Guns include all firearms. Knives include all cutting and
stabbing objects (broken bottles etc.), fists include hands, feet and
all body parts, other include drowning, arson, poison, explosives,
narcotices, asphyxiation, etc. Each column is a percentage of the total.
CSJ has statistics from 1964 through 1986.
Guns Knives Clubs Fists Other Unknown Total murders & NNH
---- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------- -------------------
1964 55% 24% 5% 10% 3% 2% 7,990
1974 67% 17% 5% 8% 1% 1% 18,632
1986 59% 20% 6% 9% 2% 4% 19,257
What is most interesting is that murder by guns climbs from 55% in 1964
to 67% in 1974, and then climbs back down to 59% in 1986. When plotted,
it is a classic Gaussian curve. Matching the climb in the first half of
the curve is the total number of murders, coming close to tripling by
1974, then remaining more or less flat from 1974 on.
There is also strong regional bias. In 1986 (CSJ[1], page 337):
Guns Knives Unknown/other/clubs Fists
----- ------ ------------------- -----
Northeast 49.4% 24.2% 12.4% 12.0%
Midwest 60.4% 19.3% 14.6% 5.7%
South 64.3% 18.4% 12.5% 4.8%
West 54.8% 21.7% 15.4% 8.0%
I would perhaps conclude that the strong anti-gun laws in the Northwest
(Ney York City, Boston, Washington DC) is responsible for the highest
use of knives for murder as well as the VERY high use of fists (12%
!!!). It should be noted in the above table that strangulation is moved
from "fists" to "unknown/other" (CSJ[1] note, page 337).
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