From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao)
Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns
Subject: Re: A probable FAQ
Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:32:37 GMT
Arthur E. Clark ([ai 063] at [yfn.ysu.edu]) wrote:
> I'm newcomer to the group, and have a few questions. First, is there an
> FAQ and/or charter for the group? Second, recommended reading on the issue
> of gun control for someone who wants to educate himself in the face of
> growing pressure for restrictive legislation.
> Thanks,
Several years ago, Phil Ronzone posted a set of statistics concerning
gun control and its effectiveness. He also posted the sources of his
information. I'll repost his statistics in this thread for you.
- Steve Kao
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Lines: 447
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
This posting contains statistics.
In a recent posting, a claim has been made that "thousands of children"
were killed each year by guns. I thought this figure was suspect and
that it seemed way too high. Upon reflection, I realized that many
statistics being bandied about on t.p.g., especially those used to
attempt to diminish the RKBA seemed suspect - and that statistics that
could be VERIFIED as to the source should be used. And what better place
to start than with myself.
I promised to "bell the cat" in an earlier posting. So off I went to the
San Jose main public library. I have the first 1/3 of the statistics
gathered. In order, I am chasing down the following sets of data:
1. Criminal statistics (how many murders, what weapons, etc.)
2. Accidental statistics (are bathrooms safer than guns?)
3. Miscellaneous
PART 1: THE CRIMINAL STATISTICS
===============================
In providing the criminal statistics, I have used the following three
references.
[1] U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics,
"Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics 1987". Release date of
August, 1988 Copies may be obtained (if unavailable in your library)
from (price unknown):
Justice Statistics Clearinghouse/NCJRS
U.S. Department of Justice
User Services Department 2
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20850
This is an extremely comprehensive book. Just about any statistic,
broken down by all kinds of factors (race, religion, rural .vs.
suburban, big .vs. little city, and so on).
[2] U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Inverstigation,
"Uniform Crime Reports 1987". Release date of July 10, 1988.
Subtitled "Crime in the United States".
This is a good source of some non-criminal statistics, such as the
results of polls asking about gun ownership etc.
[3] The California Department of Justice, Division of Law Enforcement,
Criminal Identification and Information Branch, Bureau of Criminal
Statistics and Special Services, "BCS Outlook Crime 1988 in Selected
California Law Enforcement Jurisdictions, January through December",
March 1989.
In some places, I refer to reference [1] as CJS, reference [2] as UCR,
and reference [3] as BCS.
Both CSJ and UCR are the latest available. They are both "released" 7 or
8 months after the end of the year, and are published and then received
by libraries 11 or 12 months later. For example, the CJS was stamped
with a received date of December 1988.
Since that places the data about 18 months behind, I used BCS (which
gives California statistics for 1988) as a "validity check" in case
there was a HUGE crime wave in the last 18 months which somehow would
invalidate the data. Since the California data includes large population
centers with known criminal/gang actvities (Los Angeles county, San
Fransisco), any "crime waves" would show up in these statistics. I
discuss the BCS last.
Note that in some cases, data may be for years prior to 1987 (such as
the conviction data). If other than 1987, data will be so marked.
NUMBERS OF FIREARMS MANUFACTURED IN THE UNITED STATES
-----------------------------------------------------
CJS (see [1]) has data for firearms manufacture from 1977 through 1984.
The starting and ending years are consistent with the intermediate years
(although 1980 and 1981 saw a total of 5.6 and 5.7 million guns total).
These figures do NOT include firearms manufactured for the military.
1977 Total guns ........... 4,904,422
Total handguns ... 1,879,645
Pistols ...... 452,667
Revolvers .... 1,426,978
Total long guns .. 3,024,777
Rifles ....... 1,839,925
Shotguns ..... 1,184,852
1984 Total guns ........... 4,651,477
Total handguns ... 1,679,709
Pistols ...... 752,919
Revolver ..... 926,790
Total long guns .. 2,966,838
Rifles ....... 1,622,890
Shotguns ..... 1,860,077
GENERAL CRIME STATISTICS
------------------------
U.S. population .... 229,048,000
1985 Property crime ............................... 10,710,870
Murder & non-negligent manslaughter .......... 18,352
Forcible rape ................................ 81,505
Robbery ...................................... 491,574
Aggravated assualt ........................... 696,081
Burglary ..................................... 2,960,091
Larceny-theft ................................ 6,680,810
Motor vehicle theft .......................... 1,069,969
1986 Property crime ............................... 11,324,129
Murder & non-negligent manslaughter .......... 19,966
Forcible rape ................................ 84,279
Robbery ...................................... 535,929
Aggravated assualt ........................... 802,189
Burglary ..................................... 3,124,672
Larceny-theft ................................ 7,008,229
Motor vehicle theft .......................... 1,191,228
For a humorous note in CJS (page 336), "In 1975, the "Human Kindness
Day" activities held in Washington, DC accounted for approximately 500
robbery incidents in that year". Some much for human kindness. :-)
MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, WEAPONS USED
-------------------------------------------------
Data from CSJ[1] (page 337), which in turn credits major parts of
UCR[2]. Guns include all firearms. Knives include all cutting and
stabbing objects (broken bottles etc.), fists include hands, feet and
all body parts, other include drowning, arson, poison, explosives,
narcotices, asphyxiation, etc. Each column is a percentage of the total.
CSJ has statistics from 1964 through 1986.
Guns Knives Clubs Fists Other Unknown Total murders & NNH
---- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------- -------------------
1964 55% 24% 5% 10% 3% 2% 7,990
1974 67% 17% 5% 8% 1% 1% 18,632
1986 59% 20% 6% 9% 2% 4% 19,257
What is most interesting is that murder by guns climbs from 55% in 1964
to 67% in 1974, and then climbs back down to 59% in 1986. When plotted,
it is a classic Gaussian curve. Matching the climb in the first half of
the curve is the total number of murders, coming close to tripling by
1974, then remaining more or less flat from 1974 on.
There is also strong regional bias. In 1986 (CSJ[1], page 337):
Guns Knives Unknown/other/clubs Fists
----- ------ ------------------- -----
Northeast 49.4% 24.2% 12.4% 12.0%
Midwest 60.4% 19.3% 14.6% 5.7%
South 64.3% 18.4% 12.5% 4.8%
West 54.8% 21.7% 15.4% 8.0%
I would perhaps conclude that the strong anti-gun laws in the Northwest
(Ney York City, Boston, Washington DC) is responsible for the highest
use of knives for murder as well as the VERY high use of fists (12%
!!!). It should be noted in the above table that strangulation is moved
from "fists" to "unknown/other" (CSJ[1] note, page 337).
MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, BY AGE
-------------------------------------------
It has been claimed on t.p.g. recently that thousands of children are
killed each year by guns. I am not sure if the claim was accidental
only, murder only, or both. Here is the data for 1987 (UCR[2], page 9):
Total murders and non-negligent manslaughter .... 17,859
Under 18 .................................... 1,516
Over 18 ..................................... 16,010
Total murders & NNM by firearms ................. 10,556
Under 18 .................................... 662
Over 18 ..................................... 9,736
Total CHILD murders & NNM by firearms ........... 205
Under 1 year of age ......................... 7
1-4 years of age ............................ 31
5-9 years of age ............................ 41
10-14 years of age .......................... 126
Clearly, we are NOT having "thousands of children" murdered by guns each
year.
MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, BY FIREARM TYPE
----------------------------------------------------
Here is the data for 1987 (UCR[2], page 10) for murders and NNM by
firearm type:
Total murders and NNM for 1987 ........................... 17,859
By firearms .......................................... 10,556
By handguns .............................. 7,807
By rifles ................................ 772
By shotguns .............................. 1,095
By "other" guns (includes air rifles!) ... 16
Firearm not stated ....................... 866
Well, if you look at rifles (which includes assault rifles), the 772
dead are less than 10% of those killed by handguns, and only 4.3% of the
total murders.
MURDER & NNM BY RELATIONSHIP:
-----------------------------
One of the most wrongfully used statistics used to support the argument
that keeping a personal defense is because "90% of the time it will end
up killing a loved one" (Dear Abby clipping from the San Jose Mercury
News, sorry, no date, but I estimate from the last 3 years).
From UCR[2] (page 11), for 1987 comes the following. The horizontal line
is the reason for the murder. The percentages are for that type of
murder circumstance. I.e., for all murder because of "love", 1.7% of the
victims were the husband of the murderer, 8.5% were the wives, and so
on.
Felony is because a felony (other than the murder itself) is involved.
I.e., a drug deal gone bad so one dealer shoots another.
SFelony is a suspected felony. I.e., the drug dealer that shot another
drug dealer won't say why, but the dead one has money and cocaine on his
body.
Love is romance, jealousy, and all that it entails.
$$$ is arguments over money and property.
Other is other arguments.
Misc is miscellaneous reasons. (A traffic accident escalates to a
shooting), but is of a non-felony type.
???? is unable to determine,.
VICTIM Total Felony SFelony Love $$$$ Other Misc ????
----------------- ----- ------ ------- ---- ---- ----- ---- ----
Husband 2.7% .3% 0% 1.7% 1.7% 6.1% 2.5% .7%
Wife 5.2% .3% 0% 8.5% 2.8% 8.7% 9.5% 1.8%
Mother .6% .1% 0% 0% 1.3% .8% 1.3% .4%
Father .9% .3% 0% 0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% .3%
Daughter 1.3% .7% 0% 0% 0% .6% 5.0% .5%
Son 1.7% 1.0% 0% 0% .6% 1.1% 6.2% .3%
Brother 1.1% .3% 0% .8% 3.8% 2.2% .8% .5%
Sister .3% .2% 0% .6% .2% .3% .5% .1%
Other family 2.7% 1.3% .5% 1.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.4% 1.0%
Acquaintances 30.0% 29.6% 10.9% 51.5% 46.7% 41.3% 32.9% 11.2%
Friend 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 11.8% 17.4% 7.4% 6.0% 1.5%
Boyfriend 1.4% .2% 0% 2.8% 1.5% 3.4% 1.0% .2%
Girlfriend 2.3% .3% .5% 6.3% .4% 4.6% 2.5% .9%
Neighbor 1.4% 1.4% 0% .6% 3.6% 2.0% 1.5% .4%
Stranger 13.2% 30.9% 11.4% 10.7% 7.2% 9.2% 14.0% 4.8%
Relationship ??? 29.6% 29.0% 73.3% 3.3% 5.7% 6.4% 11.6% 75.5%
The total percentage of murder by someone living in the same house is
16.5% of all murders (counting ALL family as living in the house, a
strong and certainly overstated assumption). Given the vast number of
guns cited previously, and the 48% "gun in house" rate (cited later),
the "90% of the time it will end up killing a loved one" assertion is
not valid. Lacking statistics as to where the murder occurred, it can
not be formally disproved. Alas.
MURDER & NNM BY CIRCUMSTANCE:
-----------------------------
Why does somebody murder someone? From UCR[2] (page 12), for 1987 we
have this data (again, this is the circumstance - a felony item is a
murder while you are commiting a felony - like holding up a bank and
killing a bank guard):
Total murders and NNM for 1987 ........................... 17,859
Felony total ......................................... 19.6%
Robbery .......................................... 9.4%
Narcotics ........................................ 4.9%
Sex offenses ..................................... .3%
Arson ............................................ .9%
Other felony ..................................... 4.1%
Suspected felony ..................................... 1.1%
Arguments ............................................ 36.7%
Romantic triangle ................................ 2.0%
Property or money ................................ 2.6%
Other arguments .................................. 32.0%
Miscellaneous non-felony types (includes drunk/high) . 17.7%
Unknown .............................................. 24.9%
Well, the war on drugs is going after assault rifles. Well, narcotics is
the reason for 4.9% of all murders.
Since rifles accounted for 772 murders of the 17,859 in 1987 (UCR[2],
page 10), that makes 4.3% of all murders where a rifle was the choice.
Assuming an even distribution of murder weapons across all murder
circumstances (not a safe assumption), then we have 0.21% of all
narcotics murders committed by rifles. This does bear out with the
reality of what has been reported on TV about the very very low numbers
of assault rifles seized by LA police from gang members.
MISCELLANEOUS MURDER STATISTICS (UCR[2], page 12)
-------------------------------------------------
Whites comprised 46 percent of the total arrestees for murder in 1987.
Blacks comprised 52 percent, with other races making up the difference.
The 18-24 year-old age group showed the greatest arrest percentage at
34%.
MISCELLANEOUS WEAPONS USED IN ROBBERY STATISTICS (UCR[2], page 18)
------------------------------------------------------------------
In 1987, firearms were used in robbery 33% of the time, with strongarm
used 43.5% of the time, knives 13.5% of the time, and other 9.9%.
In the Northeast, guns were used 25.3%, strongarm 45.6%, knives 17.0%,
and other 12%.
I.e., in NYC, I would say that for every 4 acts of robbery, a gun will
be used once, strongarm twice, and knives & other twice. Better register
those strongarms.
MISCELLANOUS "GUN CONTROL" STATISTIC (UCR[2], page 23)
------------------------------------------------------
The Northeast, with strongest gun control, firearms were used in
aggravated assault 14.9% of the time. In the West, with the least gun
control, they were used 17.7% of the time. In the Midwest and South,
with mixed (but growing) gun control, firearms were used 24.4% and 25.6%
of the time.
I don't see much a correlation.
Good news - firearms used in robberies has declined each and every year
from 1974 (45%) to 1986 (34%). Each and every year, strongarm has gone
up (34% in 1974 to 43% in 1986). Knives have held at a steady 12-14%.
During those years, total number of robberies has fluctated at 500,00,
+- 17%. CJS[1], page 341.
RESULTS OF POLLS
----------------
From CJS[1], page 167:
"Do you happen to have in your home or garage any guns or revolvers?"
Percentage answering yes:
1973 .... 47%
1974 .... 46%
1976 .... 47%
1977 .... 51%
1980 .... 48%
1982 .... 49%
1984 .... 49%
1985 .... 44%
1987 .... 46%
Above data was made available to editors of CJS[1] by Roper Public
Opinion Research Center.
********
From CJS[1], page 170:
"Do you own that(those) firearm(s) for protection reasons or mainly for
recreational reasons?"
Recreation .... 65%
Protection .... 20%
Both equally .. 12%
No opinion .... 2%
Source to CJS[1] -- Peter Begans, ABC News-Washington Pst Poll, Survey
No. 181, Question 53, Jan 11-16, 1985.
********
From CSJ[1], page 171:
"Do you think people should have the right to shoot someone who breaks
into their home, even they don't know whether the person is armed?"
Yes .......... 68%
No ........... 24%
No opinion ... 8%
********
From CSJ[2], page 173:
"Some communities have passed laws banning the sale and possesion of
handguns. Would you favor or oppose having such a law in this
city/community?"
Oppose Favor No Opinion
------ ----- ----------
Total ........... 47% 47% 6%
Male ............ 57% 39% 4%
Female .......... 38% 55% 7%
All gun owners... 64% 31% 5%
Handgun owners .. 71% 26% 3%
Nonowners ....... 36% 58% 6%
26% of handgun owners want them banned? Something doesn't jell!
Source: George Gallup Jr., The Gallup Report, No.248, May 1986.
ARE THE 1987 FIGURES RELIABLE?
------------------------------
Yes, I think so. The California figures for 1988 do not show any major
or even medium increase or decreases in crimes, except for motor vehicle
thefts.
In California in 1988 (BCS[3], page 2):
Willful homicides ........ -0.2%
Forcible rape ............ -5.3%
Robbery .................. +2.0%
Aggravated assault ....... +7.3%
Burglary ................. -3.3%
Motor vehicle theft ...... +15.0% (!!!!)
In Los Angeles alone (BCS[3], page 6):
Willful homicides ........ -9.1%
Forcible rape ............ -7.5%
Robbery .................. 0%
Aggravated assault ....... +9.1%
Burglary ................. -3.7%
Motor vehicle theft ...... +.4%
END OF PART 1
=============
I'll try to post part 2 (accident statistics) next week, and part 3 the week
after that. If you have any specific data that you think should be
included, drop me a line.
+-------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Philip K. Ronzone Manager Secure UNIX [p k r] at [sgi.COM] | WORK=(415) 335-1511 |
| Silicon Graphics, Inc. MS 7U-550 {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr | (24 hour voicemail) |
| 2011 N. Shoreline Blvd., Mountain View, CA 94039-7311 | FAX= (415) 965-2658 |
+-------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Phil Ronzone [p k r] at [sgi.COM] {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr
"I never vote, it only encourages 'em ..."
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