From: [REDACTED] at [hprnd.rose.hp.com] (Steve Kao) Newsgroups: talk.politics.guns Subject: Re: A probable FAQ Date: 25 Oct 1993 21:32:37 GMT Arthur E. Clark ([ai 063] at [yfn.ysu.edu]) wrote: > I'm newcomer to the group, and have a few questions. First, is there an > FAQ and/or charter for the group? Second, recommended reading on the issue > of gun control for someone who wants to educate himself in the face of > growing pressure for restrictive legislation. > Thanks, Several years ago, Phil Ronzone posted a set of statistics concerning gun control and its effectiveness. He also posted the sources of his information. I'll repost his statistics in this thread for you. - Steve Kao ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Lines: 447 There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. This posting contains statistics. In a recent posting, a claim has been made that "thousands of children" were killed each year by guns. I thought this figure was suspect and that it seemed way too high. Upon reflection, I realized that many statistics being bandied about on t.p.g., especially those used to attempt to diminish the RKBA seemed suspect - and that statistics that could be VERIFIED as to the source should be used. And what better place to start than with myself. I promised to "bell the cat" in an earlier posting. So off I went to the San Jose main public library. I have the first 1/3 of the statistics gathered. In order, I am chasing down the following sets of data: 1. Criminal statistics (how many murders, what weapons, etc.) 2. Accidental statistics (are bathrooms safer than guns?) 3. Miscellaneous PART 1: THE CRIMINAL STATISTICS =============================== In providing the criminal statistics, I have used the following three references. [1] U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, "Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics 1987". Release date of August, 1988 Copies may be obtained (if unavailable in your library) from (price unknown): Justice Statistics Clearinghouse/NCJRS U.S. Department of Justice User Services Department 2 Box 6000 Rockville, MD 20850 This is an extremely comprehensive book. Just about any statistic, broken down by all kinds of factors (race, religion, rural .vs. suburban, big .vs. little city, and so on). [2] U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Inverstigation, "Uniform Crime Reports 1987". Release date of July 10, 1988. Subtitled "Crime in the United States". This is a good source of some non-criminal statistics, such as the results of polls asking about gun ownership etc. [3] The California Department of Justice, Division of Law Enforcement, Criminal Identification and Information Branch, Bureau of Criminal Statistics and Special Services, "BCS Outlook Crime 1988 in Selected California Law Enforcement Jurisdictions, January through December", March 1989. In some places, I refer to reference [1] as CJS, reference [2] as UCR, and reference [3] as BCS. Both CSJ and UCR are the latest available. They are both "released" 7 or 8 months after the end of the year, and are published and then received by libraries 11 or 12 months later. For example, the CJS was stamped with a received date of December 1988. Since that places the data about 18 months behind, I used BCS (which gives California statistics for 1988) as a "validity check" in case there was a HUGE crime wave in the last 18 months which somehow would invalidate the data. Since the California data includes large population centers with known criminal/gang actvities (Los Angeles county, San Fransisco), any "crime waves" would show up in these statistics. I discuss the BCS last. Note that in some cases, data may be for years prior to 1987 (such as the conviction data). If other than 1987, data will be so marked. NUMBERS OF FIREARMS MANUFACTURED IN THE UNITED STATES ----------------------------------------------------- CJS (see [1]) has data for firearms manufacture from 1977 through 1984. The starting and ending years are consistent with the intermediate years (although 1980 and 1981 saw a total of 5.6 and 5.7 million guns total). These figures do NOT include firearms manufactured for the military. 1977 Total guns ........... 4,904,422 Total handguns ... 1,879,645 Pistols ...... 452,667 Revolvers .... 1,426,978 Total long guns .. 3,024,777 Rifles ....... 1,839,925 Shotguns ..... 1,184,852 1984 Total guns ........... 4,651,477 Total handguns ... 1,679,709 Pistols ...... 752,919 Revolver ..... 926,790 Total long guns .. 2,966,838 Rifles ....... 1,622,890 Shotguns ..... 1,860,077 GENERAL CRIME STATISTICS ------------------------ U.S. population .... 229,048,000 1985 Property crime ............................... 10,710,870 Murder & non-negligent manslaughter .......... 18,352 Forcible rape ................................ 81,505 Robbery ...................................... 491,574 Aggravated assualt ........................... 696,081 Burglary ..................................... 2,960,091 Larceny-theft ................................ 6,680,810 Motor vehicle theft .......................... 1,069,969 1986 Property crime ............................... 11,324,129 Murder & non-negligent manslaughter .......... 19,966 Forcible rape ................................ 84,279 Robbery ...................................... 535,929 Aggravated assualt ........................... 802,189 Burglary ..................................... 3,124,672 Larceny-theft ................................ 7,008,229 Motor vehicle theft .......................... 1,191,228 For a humorous note in CJS (page 336), "In 1975, the "Human Kindness Day" activities held in Washington, DC accounted for approximately 500 robbery incidents in that year". Some much for human kindness. :-) MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, WEAPONS USED ------------------------------------------------- Data from CSJ[1] (page 337), which in turn credits major parts of UCR[2]. Guns include all firearms. Knives include all cutting and stabbing objects (broken bottles etc.), fists include hands, feet and all body parts, other include drowning, arson, poison, explosives, narcotices, asphyxiation, etc. Each column is a percentage of the total. CSJ has statistics from 1964 through 1986. Guns Knives Clubs Fists Other Unknown Total murders & NNH ---- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------- ------------------- 1964 55% 24% 5% 10% 3% 2% 7,990 1974 67% 17% 5% 8% 1% 1% 18,632 1986 59% 20% 6% 9% 2% 4% 19,257 What is most interesting is that murder by guns climbs from 55% in 1964 to 67% in 1974, and then climbs back down to 59% in 1986. When plotted, it is a classic Gaussian curve. Matching the climb in the first half of the curve is the total number of murders, coming close to tripling by 1974, then remaining more or less flat from 1974 on. There is also strong regional bias. In 1986 (CSJ[1], page 337): Guns Knives Unknown/other/clubs Fists ----- ------ ------------------- ----- Northeast 49.4% 24.2% 12.4% 12.0% Midwest 60.4% 19.3% 14.6% 5.7% South 64.3% 18.4% 12.5% 4.8% West 54.8% 21.7% 15.4% 8.0% I would perhaps conclude that the strong anti-gun laws in the Northwest (Ney York City, Boston, Washington DC) is responsible for the highest use of knives for murder as well as the VERY high use of fists (12% !!!). It should be noted in the above table that strangulation is moved from "fists" to "unknown/other" (CSJ[1] note, page 337). MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, BY AGE ------------------------------------------- It has been claimed on t.p.g. recently that thousands of children are killed each year by guns. I am not sure if the claim was accidental only, murder only, or both. Here is the data for 1987 (UCR[2], page 9): Total murders and non-negligent manslaughter .... 17,859 Under 18 .................................... 1,516 Over 18 ..................................... 16,010 Total murders & NNM by firearms ................. 10,556 Under 18 .................................... 662 Over 18 ..................................... 9,736 Total CHILD murders & NNM by firearms ........... 205 Under 1 year of age ......................... 7 1-4 years of age ............................ 31 5-9 years of age ............................ 41 10-14 years of age .......................... 126 Clearly, we are NOT having "thousands of children" murdered by guns each year. MURDER & NON-NEGLIGENT MANSLAUGHTER, BY FIREARM TYPE ---------------------------------------------------- Here is the data for 1987 (UCR[2], page 10) for murders and NNM by firearm type: Total murders and NNM for 1987 ........................... 17,859 By firearms .......................................... 10,556 By handguns .............................. 7,807 By rifles ................................ 772 By shotguns .............................. 1,095 By "other" guns (includes air rifles!) ... 16 Firearm not stated ....................... 866 Well, if you look at rifles (which includes assault rifles), the 772 dead are less than 10% of those killed by handguns, and only 4.3% of the total murders. MURDER & NNM BY RELATIONSHIP: ----------------------------- One of the most wrongfully used statistics used to support the argument that keeping a personal defense is because "90% of the time it will end up killing a loved one" (Dear Abby clipping from the San Jose Mercury News, sorry, no date, but I estimate from the last 3 years). From UCR[2] (page 11), for 1987 comes the following. The horizontal line is the reason for the murder. The percentages are for that type of murder circumstance. I.e., for all murder because of "love", 1.7% of the victims were the husband of the murderer, 8.5% were the wives, and so on. Felony is because a felony (other than the murder itself) is involved. I.e., a drug deal gone bad so one dealer shoots another. SFelony is a suspected felony. I.e., the drug dealer that shot another drug dealer won't say why, but the dead one has money and cocaine on his body. Love is romance, jealousy, and all that it entails. $$$ is arguments over money and property. Other is other arguments. Misc is miscellaneous reasons. (A traffic accident escalates to a shooting), but is of a non-felony type. ???? is unable to determine,. VICTIM Total Felony SFelony Love $$$$ Other Misc ???? ----------------- ----- ------ ------- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- Husband 2.7% .3% 0% 1.7% 1.7% 6.1% 2.5% .7% Wife 5.2% .3% 0% 8.5% 2.8% 8.7% 9.5% 1.8% Mother .6% .1% 0% 0% 1.3% .8% 1.3% .4% Father .9% .3% 0% 0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% .3% Daughter 1.3% .7% 0% 0% 0% .6% 5.0% .5% Son 1.7% 1.0% 0% 0% .6% 1.1% 6.2% .3% Brother 1.1% .3% 0% .8% 3.8% 2.2% .8% .5% Sister .3% .2% 0% .6% .2% .3% .5% .1% Other family 2.7% 1.3% .5% 1.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.4% 1.0% Acquaintances 30.0% 29.6% 10.9% 51.5% 46.7% 41.3% 32.9% 11.2% Friend 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 11.8% 17.4% 7.4% 6.0% 1.5% Boyfriend 1.4% .2% 0% 2.8% 1.5% 3.4% 1.0% .2% Girlfriend 2.3% .3% .5% 6.3% .4% 4.6% 2.5% .9% Neighbor 1.4% 1.4% 0% .6% 3.6% 2.0% 1.5% .4% Stranger 13.2% 30.9% 11.4% 10.7% 7.2% 9.2% 14.0% 4.8% Relationship ??? 29.6% 29.0% 73.3% 3.3% 5.7% 6.4% 11.6% 75.5% The total percentage of murder by someone living in the same house is 16.5% of all murders (counting ALL family as living in the house, a strong and certainly overstated assumption). Given the vast number of guns cited previously, and the 48% "gun in house" rate (cited later), the "90% of the time it will end up killing a loved one" assertion is not valid. Lacking statistics as to where the murder occurred, it can not be formally disproved. Alas. MURDER & NNM BY CIRCUMSTANCE: ----------------------------- Why does somebody murder someone? From UCR[2] (page 12), for 1987 we have this data (again, this is the circumstance - a felony item is a murder while you are commiting a felony - like holding up a bank and killing a bank guard): Total murders and NNM for 1987 ........................... 17,859 Felony total ......................................... 19.6% Robbery .......................................... 9.4% Narcotics ........................................ 4.9% Sex offenses ..................................... .3% Arson ............................................ .9% Other felony ..................................... 4.1% Suspected felony ..................................... 1.1% Arguments ............................................ 36.7% Romantic triangle ................................ 2.0% Property or money ................................ 2.6% Other arguments .................................. 32.0% Miscellaneous non-felony types (includes drunk/high) . 17.7% Unknown .............................................. 24.9% Well, the war on drugs is going after assault rifles. Well, narcotics is the reason for 4.9% of all murders. Since rifles accounted for 772 murders of the 17,859 in 1987 (UCR[2], page 10), that makes 4.3% of all murders where a rifle was the choice. Assuming an even distribution of murder weapons across all murder circumstances (not a safe assumption), then we have 0.21% of all narcotics murders committed by rifles. This does bear out with the reality of what has been reported on TV about the very very low numbers of assault rifles seized by LA police from gang members. MISCELLANEOUS MURDER STATISTICS (UCR[2], page 12) ------------------------------------------------- Whites comprised 46 percent of the total arrestees for murder in 1987. Blacks comprised 52 percent, with other races making up the difference. The 18-24 year-old age group showed the greatest arrest percentage at 34%. MISCELLANEOUS WEAPONS USED IN ROBBERY STATISTICS (UCR[2], page 18) ------------------------------------------------------------------ In 1987, firearms were used in robbery 33% of the time, with strongarm used 43.5% of the time, knives 13.5% of the time, and other 9.9%. In the Northeast, guns were used 25.3%, strongarm 45.6%, knives 17.0%, and other 12%. I.e., in NYC, I would say that for every 4 acts of robbery, a gun will be used once, strongarm twice, and knives & other twice. Better register those strongarms. MISCELLANOUS "GUN CONTROL" STATISTIC (UCR[2], page 23) ------------------------------------------------------ The Northeast, with strongest gun control, firearms were used in aggravated assault 14.9% of the time. In the West, with the least gun control, they were used 17.7% of the time. In the Midwest and South, with mixed (but growing) gun control, firearms were used 24.4% and 25.6% of the time. I don't see much a correlation. Good news - firearms used in robberies has declined each and every year from 1974 (45%) to 1986 (34%). Each and every year, strongarm has gone up (34% in 1974 to 43% in 1986). Knives have held at a steady 12-14%. During those years, total number of robberies has fluctated at 500,00, +- 17%. CJS[1], page 341. RESULTS OF POLLS ---------------- From CJS[1], page 167: "Do you happen to have in your home or garage any guns or revolvers?" Percentage answering yes: 1973 .... 47% 1974 .... 46% 1976 .... 47% 1977 .... 51% 1980 .... 48% 1982 .... 49% 1984 .... 49% 1985 .... 44% 1987 .... 46% Above data was made available to editors of CJS[1] by Roper Public Opinion Research Center. ******** From CJS[1], page 170: "Do you own that(those) firearm(s) for protection reasons or mainly for recreational reasons?" Recreation .... 65% Protection .... 20% Both equally .. 12% No opinion .... 2% Source to CJS[1] -- Peter Begans, ABC News-Washington Pst Poll, Survey No. 181, Question 53, Jan 11-16, 1985. ******** From CSJ[1], page 171: "Do you think people should have the right to shoot someone who breaks into their home, even they don't know whether the person is armed?" Yes .......... 68% No ........... 24% No opinion ... 8% ******** From CSJ[2], page 173: "Some communities have passed laws banning the sale and possesion of handguns. Would you favor or oppose having such a law in this city/community?" Oppose Favor No Opinion ------ ----- ---------- Total ........... 47% 47% 6% Male ............ 57% 39% 4% Female .......... 38% 55% 7% All gun owners... 64% 31% 5% Handgun owners .. 71% 26% 3% Nonowners ....... 36% 58% 6% 26% of handgun owners want them banned? Something doesn't jell! Source: George Gallup Jr., The Gallup Report, No.248, May 1986. ARE THE 1987 FIGURES RELIABLE? ------------------------------ Yes, I think so. The California figures for 1988 do not show any major or even medium increase or decreases in crimes, except for motor vehicle thefts. In California in 1988 (BCS[3], page 2): Willful homicides ........ -0.2% Forcible rape ............ -5.3% Robbery .................. +2.0% Aggravated assault ....... +7.3% Burglary ................. -3.3% Motor vehicle theft ...... +15.0% (!!!!) In Los Angeles alone (BCS[3], page 6): Willful homicides ........ -9.1% Forcible rape ............ -7.5% Robbery .................. 0% Aggravated assault ....... +9.1% Burglary ................. -3.7% Motor vehicle theft ...... +.4% END OF PART 1 ============= I'll try to post part 2 (accident statistics) next week, and part 3 the week after that. If you have any specific data that you think should be included, drop me a line. +-------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+ | Philip K. Ronzone Manager Secure UNIX [p k r] at [sgi.COM] | WORK=(415) 335-1511 | | Silicon Graphics, Inc. MS 7U-550 {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr | (24 hour voicemail) | | 2011 N. Shoreline Blvd., Mountain View, CA 94039-7311 | FAX= (415) 965-2658 | +-------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Phil Ronzone [p k r] at [sgi.COM] {decwrl,sun}!sgi!pkr "I never vote, it only encourages 'em ..." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------