A tested alternative for Iranian nuclear negotiations
President Obama claims that his administration’s nuclear deal is the only alternative to war. This is a pretty standard debating tactic of the President’s: its his way or some broken-down highway filled with spike-covered reavers, and there’s nothing in between.
In this case, though, the alternatives are probably not that obvious inside the beltway, because they require thinking long-term and thinking about freedom. The obvious non-politico-friendly alternative is to simply wait until a better deal can be negotiated. We are giving Iran a lot in exchange for this deal. If we aren’t getting much of anything in return—if, in fact, Iran is allowed to get as close to nuclear weapons as it wishes without actually touching them, and is allowed to lie about touching them—then why give up that leverage? It may well be useful later.
But there is a third way, besides war and waiting, that has worked in the past. And that is to tie closer relations and/or lessened sanctions to their creating a more open society.
If we require that Iran free their political prisoners, this will make Iran a safer place for the greater voices it has. If we require that Iran stop cracking down on dissidents—cracking down in the old-school way of killing and maiming them—then Iran will in fact be a safer place for the people willing to speak out.
If we require that Iran allow anyone to leave Iran who wants to, Iran’s stranglehold on its dissidents is nearly completely removed.
If we do those simple things—if we believe in the power of freedom to transform—we may well end up with a repeat of the reasonably bloodless revolution that threw down the Soviet Union, as Iran responds to the now visible voices against its tyranny. But even if we aren’t, Iran will be a better place, with more voices, some of whom will end up in government and be more open to negotiating real nuclear reforms. Without Senator Jackson and President Reagan, Gorbachev would not have been Gorbachev.
I meant to write this simply because of the insights I had gained reading Natan Sharansky’s The Case for Democracy. In researching the post, and looking for Iranians blocked from emigrating, I came across Natan Sharansky’s July 28 response to the nuclear agreement:
Today, an American president has once again sought to achieve stability by removing sanctions against a brutal dictatorship without demanding that the latter change its behavior. And once again, outspoken Jews—leaders of the state of Israel, from the governing coalition and the opposition alike—are sounding an alarm. The United States can either appease a criminal regime or stand firm in demanding change in its behavior.
Instead, the President is going the route of Nixon and Kissinger: pretend it’s a separate issue.
But how a country treats its own citizens is a not a separate issue. It tells us how they treat everyone. It tells us how they will treat America. In fact, at least three of Iran’s political prisoners are American citizens.
In fact, if the Iranian leaders are willing to forego billions of dollars in order to maintain political prisoners and keep dissidents from leaving the country, it is nearly a certainty that the Iranian leaders are willing to negotiate in bad faith—and are willing to treat their neighbors as badly as they treat their own citizens. And, because we left ICBMs out of the nuclear negotiations, their neighbors include everyone within reach of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
In response to Republicans and America must provide an alternative: If America does not provide an alternative to the evils of progressivism gone awry in the world, it is lost.
nuclear war
- The Case for Democracy
- When did America forget that it’s America?
- Iran Still a Decade Away from Building an ICBM Able to Reach New York, D.C.: IISS: Greg Grant
- May 10: 2010: “Tehran is still four or five years away from rigging some combination of liquid or solid fuel engines to build a longer range missile capable of ranging Western Europe, according to a IISS press release. As for a notional ICBM that could reach 9,000 kilometers and hit America’s east coast, Iran is still a decade away.”
- Iranian missiles could reach U.S. by 2015, intelligence report says: Israel Hayom
- July 12, 2013: “Iran could develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States by 2015, a U.S. intelligence report released on Friday revealed.”
- It’s Either Iran Nuclear Deal or ‘Some Sort of War,’ Obama Warns: Julie Hirschfeld Davis at The New York Times
- “Let’s not mince words: The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy and some sort of war — maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon,” Mr. Obama told about 200 people at American University. “How can we in good conscience justify war before we’ve tested a diplomatic agreement that achieves our objectives?” (Memeorandum thread) (Hat tip to Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit)
political prisoners
- Fundamentals of Freedom of Movement in Iran
- “Iran interferes with individuals’ freedom of movement by arbitrarily preventing them from leaving the State.”
- How Rouhani treats political prisoners in Iran: Soona Samsami
- “On the morning of April 17, more than 100 prison guards and intelligence agents carried out a brutal raid at Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison. Many political prisoners were severely injured and some were sent to solitary confinement. Eyewitnesses later said a bus carrying the wounded prisoners was ‘drenched in blood.’”
- A refusenik’s answer to Iran: Natan Sharansky
- “Yet the Soviet Union, with its atrophied economy, badly needed cooperation with the free world, which Nixon was prepared to offer. The problem was that he did not demand nearly enough from Moscow in return. So as Nixon moved to grant the Soviet Union most-favored-nation status, and with it the same trade benefits as U.S. allies, Democrat Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington proposed a historic amendment, conditioning the removal of sanctions on the Soviet Union’s allowing free emigration for its citizens.”
- These are the three American prisoners abandoned by the Iran nuclear deal: Michael Lucchese at Breitbart
- “Last year, the Senate called on President Obama to ‘use the tools it has in pursuit of what should be a bipartisan goal: securing the release of American citizens being held as hostages by the regime in Iran.’ Today, in the announcement of a nuclear deal with Iran that ignores the plight of these three hostages, the Obama administration has left behind a Christian preacher, a journalist, and a U.S. Marine.”
- Yes, Iran does have political prisoners: Faraz Sanei and Amy Braunschweiger
- “Today, many Bahá'ís are effectively prevented from attending state universities, although the policy has relaxed somewhat. As a result, Bahá'ís started their own online universities. Iran’s government, of course, considered this illegal and disbanded the universities, arresting anyone affiliated with them. Some of the Baha’i educators are now in Rajai Shahr prison.”
More Iran
- Comparing our Iran negotiations to our Soviet negotiations
- Natan Sharansky asks, "When did America forget that it’s America?” He is basically pointing out the same thing I did: that we are not defining civilization as better than barbarism.
- Iranian crisis continues
- Despite the lack of coverage, the Iranian protestors continue to fight.