Global warming vs. oiled dolphins
It seems as though every year since I started paying attention, we discover that even though the current year’s numbers don’t show a warming trend—and haven’t since 1998—the current year really was hotter because someone has discovered that temperatures from previous years need to be adjusted colder. The pause, hiatus, or whatever you want to call—but whatever you call it has to imply that it is temporary—does not really exist.
Reading the latest Science News, I discover that that seventeen-year warming plateau has been acknowledged—so that it can be explained away by readjusting the numbers all through this and the previous century.
I have only been receiving Science News for about a month, and it is normally a great magazine. Part of what makes it great is that it presents a lot of information concisely. Global warming ‘hiatus’ just an artifact, study finds is one page, and on the facing page is a paleoanthropology summary, Fossils suggest another hominid species lived near Lucy.
A partial upper jaw and two partial lower jaws, one recovered in two pieces, belonged to Australopithecus deyiremeda, says a team led by Yohannes Haile-Selassie, a paleoanthropologist at the Cleveland Museum of Natural History. These finds support the view that two or more hominid species coexisted in East Africa before the dawn of the Homo genus, the researchers report in the May 28 Nature.
These two discoveries have a lot in common. Both potentially change the conversation in their respective fields. Both are about a lot of interpretation of raw numbers. It is hard to interpret global climate based on the incomplete and inconsistent measurements of the past century, and it is hard to identify separate species based on a handful of incomplete and broken bones.
Most importantly, both are about variation. How do you measure it in a theoretically and experimentally useful way? There is a minor controversy in paleoanthropology today, whether they have been making up new species for what is observed as normal variation in humans and other species today.
So what’s different? One article presents a contrary view, one does not.
Some investigators see the new fossils as representatives of Lucy’s kind, not a separate species. Paleoanthropologist Time White of the University of California says that A. deyiremeda, K. platyops and A. bahrelghazali show only minor differences from the skeletal pattern observed in nearly 400 A. afarensis fossils discovered over the last 40 years. “Lucy’s species just got a few more new fossils,” he says.
If current loose standards for defining hominid species were applied at the San Diego Zoo, “each mammal species would need five more cages,” White says.
This give and take is what pushes a discipline forward. Scientific theories are a lot like kites: without some force to oppose them, they just fall to the ground. Every theory needs someone questioning it, or it will never evolve into the truth.
This principle is so important to science that even the article about dying Gulf dolphins a few pages later had to present an opposing view, even though they had to go to a British Petroleum senior vice president to get it. The opposing view is that important.
And, unlike the effect of too much oil on dolphins, it isn’t hard to find good opposing views when it comes to temperature measurements. Not just on how they are measured but where the measurements come from. For example, some scientists think that climate science could have precise figures that don’t need massaging every year. They come from satellite readings, but the numbers run so far against the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming theory that NASA itself tends to oppose using space satellites to provide better numbers.
Which means that the industry sticks with numbers only haphazardly acquired that require constant massaging. That end up being re-massaged every year to show that the current year is a hot one even when winter lasted into May.
But it’s even worse that science-oriented news outlets are isolating catastrophic anthropogenic global warming scientists from competing theories and criticism, as if such were even worse than dolphin-killing oil execs. It’s a guarantee of bad science.
In response to I believe in Global Warming (and other conversion stories): Conversion stories aren’t meant to convert skeptics; they’re a bonding tale for the converted, a sign of a religion; science needs theories that make predictions about what happens when they’re right and how to falsify them if they’re wrong. Proof for human-caused global warming is always whatever happened last month or last year, never tomorrow. No application of the scientific method can ever disprove it because hindsight is 20/20.
science
- @NOAA’s desperate new paper: Is there no global warming ‘hiatus’ after all?: Patrick J. Michaels, Richard S. Lindzen, and Paul C. Knappenberger at Watts Up With That?
- “A new paper published today by Science, from Thomas Karl and several co-authors, that removes the ‘hiatus’ in global warming prompts many serious scientific questions.”
- Why Does NASA GISS Oppose Satellites?: Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That?
- “One of the ironies of climate science is that perhaps the most prominent opponent of satellite measurement of global temperature is James Hansen, head of… wait for it… the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA!”
Science News
- Fossils suggest another hominid species lived near Lucy: Bruce Bower at Science News
- “Fossils suggest another hominid species lived near Lucy”
- Global warming ‘hiatus’ just an artifact, study finds: Thomas Sumner at Science News
- “Skewed ocean data hid recent rapid increase in temperature.”
- Rising dolphin deaths linked to Horizon Deepwater spill: Beth Mole at Science News
- “Gulf of Mexico blowout may have led to lung, other injuries.”
More cargo cult science
- Cargo Cult Science
- “When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.” Richard Feynman’s famous “cargo cult science”, adapted from the Caltech commencement address given in 1974. Rescued from Donald Simanek’s home page.
- Rudyard Kipling: The Humility of the Plague Doctor
- Charts and graphs are not science. You can get charts and graphs with astrology and biorhythms. Computers can model scientific superstition just as well as they can model real theories. Bloodletting is superstition even if its done in the name of a computer model.
- The scientific creed
- If science is your religion, you have chosen the hardest religion of all. If science is your religion, you don’t prove yourself right. You prove yourself wrong.
- Should the government (and the CDC) fund research into gun violence?
- Government funded research has held back progress in reducing violence and preventing suicide.
- Did government funding help keep Flint’s water unsafe?
- When researchers rely on government funding to keep their jobs, it should come as no surprise that they aren’t eager to publish findings that reflect badly on those government agencies that fund them.
- Seven more pages with the topic cargo cult science, and other related pages
More global warming
- Climate priests cry wolf one more time?
- In science, if your theory’s predictions don’t happen, you need a new theory. In religion, if your beliefs predict something that doesn’t happen, you just keep moving that prediction further into the future.
- Can Californians drink a train?
- The meme goes that even if we’re wrong about global warming, the money spent will still make the world a better place. That is only true if you can drink a high-speed train.
- Cargo cult climate science
- When your real-world evidence contradicts your theory, that isn’t a boon for deniers; that’s a boon for you, because, if you are a scientist, that is how your scientific knowledge advances. Real scientists are embarrassed when they ignore real-world evidence in favor of a mere theory.
- Republican President must keep Roosevelt’s word
- Even if a future conservative president doesn’t believe Americans of Japanese descent are disloyal, says Irwin Stelzer, he should think twice before rescinding President Roosevelt’s Executive Orders. The President’s honor—and the nation’s—is more important than politics.
- Another victim of climate change: science reporting
- The needs of religious reporting are completely different from the needs of science reporting. Treating climate change as a religion is killing science reporting. If we’re not careful, it will kill science as well.
- 14 more pages with the topic global warming, and other related pages
More science
- Cargo Cult Science
- “When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.” Richard Feynman’s famous “cargo cult science”, adapted from the Caltech commencement address given in 1974. Rescued from Donald Simanek’s home page.
- Does government funding hold science back?
- Abundant government funding for research probably has the effect of dividing research into crazy and conventional, with little in between for innovative.
- Another victim of climate change: science reporting
- The needs of religious reporting are completely different from the needs of science reporting. Treating climate change as a religion is killing science reporting. If we’re not careful, it will kill science as well.
- I believe in Global Warming (and other conversion stories)
- Conversion stories aren’t meant to convert skeptics; they’re a bonding tale for the converted, a sign of a religion; science needs theories that make predictions about what happens when they’re right and how to falsify them if they’re wrong. Proof for human-caused global warming is always whatever happened last month or last year, never tomorrow. No application of the scientific method can ever disprove it because hindsight is 20/20.
More Science News
- Should the government (and the CDC) fund research into gun violence?
- Government funded research has held back progress in reducing violence and preventing suicide.
- Climate priests cry wolf one more time?
- In science, if your theory’s predictions don’t happen, you need a new theory. In religion, if your beliefs predict something that doesn’t happen, you just keep moving that prediction further into the future.
- Cargo cult climate science
- When your real-world evidence contradicts your theory, that isn’t a boon for deniers; that’s a boon for you, because, if you are a scientist, that is how your scientific knowledge advances. Real scientists are embarrassed when they ignore real-world evidence in favor of a mere theory.
- Another victim of climate change: science reporting
- The needs of religious reporting are completely different from the needs of science reporting. Treating climate change as a religion is killing science reporting. If we’re not careful, it will kill science as well.
More scientific method
- Our Cybernetic Future 1954: Entropy and Anti-Entropy
- In 1954, Norbert Wiener warned us about Twitter and other forms of social media, about the breakdown of the scientific method, and about the government funding capture of scientific progress.
- The scientific creed
- If science is your religion, you have chosen the hardest religion of all. If science is your religion, you don’t prove yourself right. You prove yourself wrong.
- Climate priests cry wolf one more time?
- In science, if your theory’s predictions don’t happen, you need a new theory. In religion, if your beliefs predict something that doesn’t happen, you just keep moving that prediction further into the future.
- The gullible media and the chocolate factory
- Journalists, because of their background and temperament, are specially unsuited to report on science.