Another victim of climate change: science reporting
The latest Science News has another example of how climate change is killing science reporting. I don’t mean to pick on Science News. It’s the science magazine I subscribe to and so they’re the one I’m familiar with. As far as I can tell, they’re the best general science magazine available; that’s why I chose to subscribe to them.
In the Notebook section of their September 19, 2015 issue, they report on a Weather, Climate and Society article that says U.S. agriculture could save $2.2 billion “Estimated annual savings to U.S. agriculture by 2100 from aggressive carbon emissions.”
… economist Brent Boehlert of MIT and colleagues estimate that large-scale climate action would save farmers about $980 million annually by 2050. More modest cuts would net savings of around $390 million annually.
The notebook entry is missing one very important piece of information: a comparison to give that number meaning. There is an entire branch of science devoted to giving measurements meaning; I learned that in a previous issue, which reported that scientists are attempting to create a more precise means for measuring mass.
Now, at most of the levels that matter for a general science magazine, mass will always be more precise than economics. But the notebook entry just above the climate change entry is on virus infection, an area just as bound by statistics as economics. That article reports on research into how vomiting helps noroviruses spread.
… Depending on pump pressure and the virus concentration in the throw-up, as few as 36 and as many as over 13,000 virus particles were released by the mechanical spewing.
Those numbers are just as meaningless as the millions and billions in the climate change article. How many viruses does it take to cause an infection? Tens? Hundreds? Thousands? Millions? Without that information, the “36 and as many as over 13,000” numbers are worthless. To provide context, author Sarah Schwartz adds:
Just 20 norovirus particles can cause infection, so vomiting can probably spread norovirus to more unfortunate victims.
Certainly one could quibble with the comparison provided and the lack of specificity to it—what does “can cause infection” really mean, and how often do 20 particles cause infection? But this is a notebook entry, not a full-page or multipage article. It needs some context, not complete context, and the magazine provides it. Twenty particles can cause infection, and vomiting puts over thirty in the air.
The carbon cuts entry does not provide that context, making their numbers completely meaningless. Further, in the sidebar where they should provide that context, they provide a completely unrelated number. The entry is about how much will be saved by carbon cuts; the sidebar that should be used for context provides an unrelated number designed solely to scare, the “current total damages from droughts in the United States each year on average, an amount greater than from flooding or hurricanes.”
But droughts happen even without any man-made climate change, and the entry itself makes clear that those larger numbers have no relation to the savings. What should have gone there are the costs of those cuts. Savings are meaningless without including the costs of those savings. You can save $200 on a new car and still not be able to afford the $20,000 the car costs.
Salesmen always emphasize what you will save if you buy their product. They hide what you’re going to have to spend until you’ve already made the decision and are writing the check.
For example, I recall that the money given to Solyndra in 2009 was itself over half a billion dollars.1 That was only one tiny part of the cost of climate cuts, we are spending that kind of money every year, and it alone almost reaches the 2050 savings in one year.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, direct incentives alone, merely to alternative energy production, were over ten billion dollars in 2013. Other costs include the people who could have been fed instead of diverting vegetable crops to fuel.
That puts a few hundred million in perspective. But if author Thomas Sumner had provided a comparative figure of costs that included that ten billion dollars as well as everything else we are spending in the climate change industry, the article would either not have been used, or would have been edited to remove it, because climate change is no longer science; it is religion, and figures that reflect badly on it must be excised.
I’m not saying that Sumner is a climate change zealot2. It may be that he provided the information and it was edited out. Or it may be that Sumner knew that including it would mean his article wouldn’t be used, and he wouldn’t be published, so he voluntarily removed it. It may be that Science News would have preferred to include comparative figures, but left them out because they knew how strong the backlash would be if they reported figures that reflect badly on the climate change religion. I don’t know. But I do know that in science, no figures reflect badly on science. They provide context that helps direct further research to where it is most likely to be effective. We are creating an atmosphere in climate change “studies” where science doesn’t matter; only furthering the religion matters. If that spreads to other fields of science, there will be no science.
It is impossible to emphasize enough that real science is about disproving theories. You can never really prove a theory; you can only fail to disprove it often enough that it is likely true. For an example of that, read the antimatter and relativity note in the same issue. The language is completely different; it is the language of science:
After failing to find fissures in the standard model, the researchers turned their sights to the general theory of relativity but also came up empty.
They are not trying to prove relativity or the standard model. They are explicitly trying to disprove it. This is how science advances. It is this critical change in how we think about science that has given us our amazing strides and made the modern world modern. We are slowly re-entering the realm of pre-scientific thought where trying to disprove the theories of the anointed is a heresy.
In response to I believe in Global Warming (and other conversion stories): Conversion stories aren’t meant to convert skeptics; they’re a bonding tale for the converted, a sign of a religion; science needs theories that make predictions about what happens when they’re right and how to falsify them if they’re wrong. Proof for human-caused global warming is always whatever happened last month or last year, never tomorrow. No application of the scientific method can ever disprove it because hindsight is 20/20.
The actual figure was 536 million, if my research is correct.
↑Although, as it turns out, the previous article that left out very important information was also Sumner’s.
↑
global warming
- Carbon cuts could save U.S. farmers billions of dollars: Thomas Sumner at Science News
- “U.S. agriculture could reap big benefits from curbed carbon emissions. Such cuts would reduce the frequency and severity of future crop-parching droughts, saving American farmers billions of dollars annually by 2100, researchers calculate in the July issue of Weather, Climate and Society.”
- Direct Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year 2013
- “The total value of direct federal financial interventions and subsidies in energy markets decreased nearly 25% between FYs 2010 and 2013, declining from $38.0 billion to $29.3 billion.”
- Global warming vs. oiled dolphins
- Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming critics are more dangerous than oil execs who kill dolphins, and need to be buried deeper than two million year old bones. But this makes CAGW a non-science. Science requires criticism or it isn’t science. Science-oriented media outlets are doing CAGW scientists a disservice by protecting them from competing theories.
- What if we’re wrong about global warming?
- What if catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is a big hoax and we starve millions and send billions into misery for nothing?
science
- Antimatter doesn’t differ from charge-mass expectations: Andrew Grant at Science News
- “Many physicists would love to discover even minute discrepancies, which could signal the existence of new particles and forces and help reveal why the universe is made of matter rather than antimatter.”
- Revamping the metric measure of mass: Sarah Schwartz at Science News
- “In an effort to provide accurate measurements at all scales, scientists are preparing to redefine four basic units by the end of 2018. The shift will most notably affect the kilogram, the base measure of mass and the last member of the International System of Units still defined by a physical object. Current efforts are under way to check and fine-tune measurements of fundamental natural quantities—such as Avogadro’s number—for use in giving the kilogram a new mathematical definition.”
- ‘Vomiting device’ sounds gross but it helps study infections: Sarah Schwartz at Science News
- “Researchers in North Carolina use the barfing machine to study how human noroviruses, leading causes of upchucking worldwide, spread through the air.”
More cargo cult science
- Cargo Cult Science
- “When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.” Richard Feynman’s famous “cargo cult science”, adapted from the Caltech commencement address given in 1974. Rescued from Donald Simanek’s home page.
- Rudyard Kipling: The Humility of the Plague Doctor
- Charts and graphs are not science. You can get charts and graphs with astrology and biorhythms. Computers can model scientific superstition just as well as they can model real theories. Bloodletting is superstition even if its done in the name of a computer model.
- The scientific creed
- If science is your religion, you have chosen the hardest religion of all. If science is your religion, you don’t prove yourself right. You prove yourself wrong.
- Should the government (and the CDC) fund research into gun violence?
- Government funded research has held back progress in reducing violence and preventing suicide.
- Did government funding help keep Flint’s water unsafe?
- When researchers rely on government funding to keep their jobs, it should come as no surprise that they aren’t eager to publish findings that reflect badly on those government agencies that fund them.
- Seven more pages with the topic cargo cult science, and other related pages
More global warming
- Climate priests cry wolf one more time?
- In science, if your theory’s predictions don’t happen, you need a new theory. In religion, if your beliefs predict something that doesn’t happen, you just keep moving that prediction further into the future.
- Can Californians drink a train?
- The meme goes that even if we’re wrong about global warming, the money spent will still make the world a better place. That is only true if you can drink a high-speed train.
- Cargo cult climate science
- When your real-world evidence contradicts your theory, that isn’t a boon for deniers; that’s a boon for you, because, if you are a scientist, that is how your scientific knowledge advances. Real scientists are embarrassed when they ignore real-world evidence in favor of a mere theory.
- Republican President must keep Roosevelt’s word
- Even if a future conservative president doesn’t believe Americans of Japanese descent are disloyal, says Irwin Stelzer, he should think twice before rescinding President Roosevelt’s Executive Orders. The President’s honor—and the nation’s—is more important than politics.
- What if we’re wrong about global warming?
- What if catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is a big hoax and we starve millions and send billions into misery for nothing?
- 14 more pages with the topic global warming, and other related pages
More government funding capture
- Gain-of-bureaucracy disease
- Bureaucracies do not admit they’re wrong; scientists are always trying to prove they’re wrong. Government funding is diametrically opposed to the advancement of science.
- Of (Laboratory) Mice and Men
- If funding is your customer, the incentives are very different than if patients are your customer. Competition to meet bureaucratic definitions is inferior to competition to meet real human choices.
- Prescriptive vs. performance mandates
- Do performance mandates matter? They’re arguably better than prescriptive mandates, but they still divert progress away from real progress and toward bureaucratic definitions.
- CDC warns gun owners to beware of the leopard
- More evidence that the CDC cannot be trusted doing research on firearms ownership.
- Government Funding Disorder
- Why would “internet gaming disorder” receive four times the research of postpartum depression? Because one promises to increase the power of government, and one just helps women.
- Six more pages with the topic government funding capture, and other related pages
More science
- Cargo Cult Science
- “When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.” Richard Feynman’s famous “cargo cult science”, adapted from the Caltech commencement address given in 1974. Rescued from Donald Simanek’s home page.
- Does government funding hold science back?
- Abundant government funding for research probably has the effect of dividing research into crazy and conventional, with little in between for innovative.
- Global warming vs. oiled dolphins
- Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming critics are more dangerous than oil execs who kill dolphins, and need to be buried deeper than two million year old bones. But this makes CAGW a non-science. Science requires criticism or it isn’t science. Science-oriented media outlets are doing CAGW scientists a disservice by protecting them from competing theories.
- I believe in Global Warming (and other conversion stories)
- Conversion stories aren’t meant to convert skeptics; they’re a bonding tale for the converted, a sign of a religion; science needs theories that make predictions about what happens when they’re right and how to falsify them if they’re wrong. Proof for human-caused global warming is always whatever happened last month or last year, never tomorrow. No application of the scientific method can ever disprove it because hindsight is 20/20.
More Science News
- Should the government (and the CDC) fund research into gun violence?
- Government funded research has held back progress in reducing violence and preventing suicide.
- Climate priests cry wolf one more time?
- In science, if your theory’s predictions don’t happen, you need a new theory. In religion, if your beliefs predict something that doesn’t happen, you just keep moving that prediction further into the future.
- Cargo cult climate science
- When your real-world evidence contradicts your theory, that isn’t a boon for deniers; that’s a boon for you, because, if you are a scientist, that is how your scientific knowledge advances. Real scientists are embarrassed when they ignore real-world evidence in favor of a mere theory.
- Global warming vs. oiled dolphins
- Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming critics are more dangerous than oil execs who kill dolphins, and need to be buried deeper than two million year old bones. But this makes CAGW a non-science. Science requires criticism or it isn’t science. Science-oriented media outlets are doing CAGW scientists a disservice by protecting them from competing theories.